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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RMF who wrote (35793)	6/11/2009 11:42:42 AM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

Re: "Geezzzz... Could you be more equivocal???" SURE, RMF! (I can try! <GGG>) >>> But actually, I didn't think I was being very 'equivocal' at all with my earlier comments. It is just that the only definitive gain that we can point to right now - that is 'region-wide' - is the strong improvement in America's approval rates in public polling. Believe I pointed that out... and it's certainly better then a sharp stick in the eye. It's hard to affect events in the direction that you would like to if the public is violently against you. >>> And, increased esteem from the public in Middle Eastern countries can also translate as DECREASED support for many of our enemies, such as al Qaeda. A terrorist revolutionary organization such as al Qaeda NEEDS support among the public to EXIST, to SURVIVE. As Mao famously observed in his 'Little Red Book': Revolutionaries are like fish, and the ocean they swim in is the public. >>> Take away the public's support and you take away their ability to survive.... (So I certainly do not mean to diminish the strategic importance of winning over the public's support!) Re: I'm not sayin' that Obama is gonna change the world, I'm just saying he may "swing" some key elections. (My only problem with that contention is there are NOT THAT MANY FREE and FAIR ELECTIONS throughout the entire region. Not in Egypt, not in Saudi Arabia, not in Syria, etc. When Iraqi and Lebanese and Palestinian elections are among your best regional examples of 'fair and free elections' it is easy to see that most of the region is still under the stultifying grip of corrupt Dictators, Monarchs, and other Autocrats.) Re: "The KEYEST election would be Iran. The new guy in Iran could stay with the old "we're going nuclear", but cut out all the "we're gonna build a bomb" stuff. He could get the inspectors back in and even say he'll go with "light water reactors". We may have OPTIONS now." Under international law, Iran (however much we might loath their Theocratic Dictatorial government...) has the legal right to civilian nuclear energy --- but NOT to nuclear weapons. One of the big problems there is that there is widespread support (even among the 'liberals') for Iran going nuclear. It has been painted for so long in patriotic terms, and they live in such a war-prone region, suffered so much during the Iraq/Iran decade long war, that many see such weapons as a guarantee of "no more war" for them. (Exactly as strategic nuclear weapons have mostly worked for other nuclear states.) Re: "Our only option previously was Israel hitting Iran and us being involved in a 3rd War." I don't think that was ever much of a good option (odds for 'success' too low). What probably IS ENCOURAGING though are the ECONOMIC and the DEMOGRAPHIC conditions in Iran. Iran's economy has been very much poorly managed by the Mullahs, (Hell - they can't even supply gasoline to their people...), and a very LARGE POLITICAL DIVIDE is forming between the Urban (generally more pro-Western and liberal and more secular and pro-Democracy) and the poorer Rural citizens (generally less educated, more fundamentalist, and more supportive of the Mullahs' rule). Iran also has one of the YOUNGEST POPULATIONS of any major nation in the world --- I believe that around HALF of their entire population is below the age of 20 --- and the young there are much like the young in many other countries... they want more freedom, they want job opportunities, educational opportunities, and they are more tuned-in to the 'Western lifestyles'. In short... if we can manage the transition period effectively, and keep from doing harm to our own cause, there is much reason for hope there as well.