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To: LoneClone who wrote (38475)6/11/2009 8:31:47 PM
From: LoneClone  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 195465
 
Tin consumption may fall 10%-15% this year – ITRI

miningweekly.com

By: Liezel Hill
10th June 2009

TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – Global tin consumption may decline by between 10% and 15% in 2009, based on a direct survey of consumers and an analysis of the relationship between demand for the metal and economic and industrial activity, ITRI, an industry body, said on Wednesday.

World tin usage peaked at over 360 000 t in 2007, after growing at around 4% a year for the ten years before that.

However growth rates were slowing even before the onset of recession and demand dropped very sharply in the final quarter of 2008, the group said in a statement.

ITRI is now carrying out a new survey of tin users to verify the short-term volume changes.

“Although world tin consumption is forecast to start recovering in 2010, a strong bounce-back is only likely from 2011,” the body said.

Thereafter, a return to longer-term trend growth rates in 2012-2013 would result in annual consumption rising to 385 000 t by the end of 2013.

Almost all the growth in demand is likely to be in China and other emerging Asian markets, with both solder and tin plate usage increasing.

On the supply side, world mine production surged to a historical peak of over 320 000 t/y in 2005 and 2006, but has subsequently been declining, according to ITRI data.

“The fall has been accentuated by the global financial crisis, which has also caused delays or cancellations of new project development."

In the long run, higher prices are needed to boost production to match growth trend in tin consumption, it said.

“Virtually no new projects will come on stream over the next three years, and most of the ones identified are not economically viable at current prices.”