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To: profile_14 who wrote (13435)6/17/2009 4:07:53 PM
From: profile_14  Respond to of 13449
 
BTW, long SZK. Consumer discretionary products are getting squeezed by reduced credit, lost jobs, inability to raise prices due to excess capacity, weak dollar translating into higher cost of imported goods (i.e., lower margins for clothing companies, stores, et. al.), no hard asset sales in dollar denominated terms to hedge out currency exposure, etc. this represents approximately 70% of our economy and retail is near the August 2008 highs. Another great short IMO is XRT.



To: profile_14 who wrote (13435)6/19/2009 3:08:16 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13449
 
Hi profile,

The ecri has been projecting coming out of recesssion by this summer.

They were spot on in calling the decline.

I think we'll see conflicting signs as the better news gains more high frequency reports.

There has been a lot of money committed and far from being put to work.Longer lag times coupled with excess capacity will give us a good run before inflation gets serious expectations.IMHO

Bob


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