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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearded One who wrote (6186)	10/28/1997 2:31:00 PM
From: Jacques Chitte	Respond to of 9285

We got a billion-plus share day going on the big board today. That's endgame stuff; opinions?

To: Bearded One who wrote (6186)	10/29/1997 1:09:00 AM
From: hasbeen101	Respond to of 9285

I realize this isn't the Big Kahuna thread, but does anyone want to make a guess as to what is going to happen to earnings in tech stocks if there's a depression (sorry, recession) in Asia? There was some excellent analysis last night on Australian TV by a journalist with the Far East Economic Review. She pointed out that although Asia has been sucking in lots of capital, and although they have shown lots of ecnomic growth, lots of the capital has been squandered on stupid unproductive projects, and the growth has not been good quality. Examples of unproductive spending are Tommy Suharto's "Timor" car, and Malaysian PM Dr Mahatir building the tallest phallic symbol (whoops, I mean office tower) in the world. She went on to say that if this crisis focuses these countries on productive allocation of capital it could indeed by very salutary. They may have slower growth, but it will likely be better-quality growth. Also, you have to remember that Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand are fairly puny economically. I live in Australia, and US residents naturally regard Australia as fairly puny and peripheral from an economic standpoint. Well these countries are even punier. Finally, even though they produce a fair quantity of cheap labor electronics manufactures, they represent a tiny portion of international demand for these goods. In sum, I think the collateral damage to the US economy (including tech stocks) will be rather small.