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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (121822)	6/20/2009 3:33:06 PM
From: quehubo	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206347

Canada has 100 bcf more in storage y o y. I saw one estimate that by August their storage will be full and their supply will then head south.

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (121822)	6/21/2009 1:22:58 PM
From: tradingfaster123	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206347

408bcf, 84% full +86 to last year +131 to the 5-year average This month Canadian imports have been running 1.3bcfpd under last year. Back in late April, Early May, for a period they were running almost 2.5bcfpd under last year-- that was one factor that led to lower than expected injections at the time--and a reason I exited the short positions I had on. Seasonally, Canadian imports should increase 1 to 1.5bcfpd from here. If they don't, that will lead to lower than expected injections later this summer, all else equal. Canadian storage will be full soon, but I don't know if that in itself will have a dramatic affect on the amount exported to the U.S. Two thirds is exported to the West and Midcontinent, where pricing in the U.S. is already extremely depressed. One third is to the premium east coast market; the assumption is that that is already fully utilized. More likely once canadian storage fills up completely, shut-ins begin in earnest, in the event prices stay where they are now or lower. There is anecdotal evidence popping up everywhere that industrial demand will be picking up ever-so-slightly. Chrysler and US Steel, for example, have announced plans to restart some plants. At the same time there are indications production is making it's move lower, which will accelerate as we approach the back end of the year. We're not too far from the one year anniversary of the peak of the rig count. Canada cannot be understated. We could be talking a 6bcfpd fall in production, 4.5 in the states plus 1.5bcfpd in Canada, by year end. The next few weeks may produce a string of bullish injections, as Bentek is indicating the dailies are under 10bcf/d with the heat picking up. I guess this is a point where we see the producing region injections fall off quite significantly. Storage has been on a trajectory for 4100, given the 2bcfpd loose market. A tightening to 5-year averages can have us avoiding full storage altogether, quite possibly. The next few weeks will tell the tale. A hurricane will change the dynamic of the market as well, and given that the last 3 of 5 years have had significant shut-ins from hurricanes, it's not out of the realm of possibilities.