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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (98816)	6/23/2009 1:29:52 AM
From: John McCarthy	Respond to of 116555

The Gap discussion - dummed down - is really his argument against wage push inflation. a) Since Volker - we are all 'living' monetarists - so I don't understand the monster he is fighting. I don't read the same press articles? b) Since globalization - median wages across the world have fallen i.e. headed 'towards' China and India's median wage level versus what wages were before China and India became part of the world's output - with noteable exceptions -- Fees at Goldman Sachs, etc. -- Programmers that write code for games -- All niche entities (brain doctors) - globalozation can't reach - yet -- Baseball Players - an irrational price inelastic 'need' for Manny and others. The discussion on super duper debt is unfortunate. Without knowing the velocity of money within the context of the examples given - its like trying to solve the square feet within a square but you only have 1 side of the square. It cannot be done accurately. Have we gone over the edge? I sure think so. But not only because of the damage done in the last 9 years but moreso because the FORWARD TREND is accelerating i.e. a) "print paper / stop thinking about consequences" - repeat a). Lastly, China will spend 25% of its "horde" this year. Its bubble spending - with the big exception that they are spending savings and not printing paper. At 50% - I think they will create a new plan. regards John McCarthy

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (98816)	6/23/2009 2:14:28 AM
From: Amark$p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Some Common Falacies about Inflation and Deflation: The Weimar Nightmare in Review. Let me put in my 2 cents... Until we see M-1 multiplier above 1, we will not have inflation: research.stlouisfed.org Per above link, M-1 Multiplier has been below 1 for past 5 months. What we will see in my opinion, is inflationary expectations that creep into a rising M-1 multiplier. I do not pretend to know when this will be... I don't care if US is deleveraging or in deflation or not, it will be inflationary expectations that rule the day. And inflationary expectations will show up first in M-1 multiplier.