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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (20960)	6/23/2009 10:42:43 PM
From: RJA_	1 Recommendation Respond to of 71455

>>what to do as Jay Chen is fond of saying "the lonely path is the correct way." For myself I remember the 70's and it seems a bit of a replay only more so. What are you most comfortable holding? What will hold it's value in different circumstances? PM, farm land, ag futures, energy? All are ok some more convenient and liquid than others. Suggest you look at fundamentals and not worry too much about short term moves. However, all must be decided by yourself as you must live with your choices. See 2nd line above.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (20960)	6/24/2009 2:11:55 PM
From: Horgad	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71455

If you are nervous about gold crashing in a deflation part II scenario, in a word, hedge your bets. Short the highest priced commodity. Set yourself up with a paired trade ala the philosophy of Knighty Tin. Long silver and short gold? Long natural gas and short oil?Long gold miners and dbl short the S&P 500? Keep changing your paired trades as commodity prices shift and you should be able to make money the slower and safer way. IMHO

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (20960)	6/26/2009 1:12:15 AM
From: prosperous	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71455

Would say 10-20%(no more) in gold, 0-10% equities, and rest MM, short term govt treasuries or cash. If say we have inflation and dollar value drops by half, with 20% gold, 80% cash expect gold to double, cash to become half in value and you would lose at the most 20% of total portfolio (not too bad considering there was 50% devaluation), similarly if you have say larger inflation say 3x, you would lose 14%. Need to make sure these are within your risk tolerance, if on the other hand there is severe deflation, you will still come out OK (since cash would work well). The problem currently making one way bet to not lose at all or make gains on inflation or deflation expectation is that you would need to take very high risk and will likely realize it if the bet goes in the other direction. Most folks should be able to see that stock market investing with huge interventions are playgrounds for speculating hedge funds and trading very iratically considering the news we are getting and most investors would do well to stay away other than an occasional hit and run. Until these leveraged/speculating hedge funds, who have been supported by govt interventions are evaporated the equity market will stay a dangerous place. My simple minded heuristic is when the DJ on our FM radio station stops telling us where stocks are every half hour with high degree of emotion I would consider to start investing in the stock market :-) until then I will let him enjoy the roller-coasters