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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Slife who wrote (17929)	6/24/2009 1:59:43 PM
From: Horgad	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 49977

One scenario supported by weak natural gas fundamentals. Of course, if the dollar crashes all bets are off and all commods go up.

To: Slife who wrote (17929)	6/24/2009 3:14:03 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	3 Recommendations Respond to of 49977

Slife, re: Nat Gas... I don't have much of a dog in this hunt, just a few LEAP puts sold earlier this year. What I see is profit taking on the "inflation trade" getting a little ahead of itself, and the underlying supply:demand fundamentals. Technically, I like the chart, but would hope for a long hot summer, and an early winter <vbg>. The good news: Nattie has broken out of it's down trend. The bad news: Weak demand and plenty of supply, although I'd acknowledge the number of rigs shut down, is a when, not if positive catalyst. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range Nat Gas double topped, and now looks to be setting up for a classic double bottom re-test, and potential breakout above that $4.57 double top. Energy demand is still weak, and could get weaker, but I believe that central banks are going to do yet another round of stimulus, which should firm commodities against paper. I still lean to put sales for Nat Gas/UNG and would buy time. Maybe the $9 - $12 Jan 2010 UNG strikes. Nat Gas is now forming a base between $3.50 - $4.50, if we get a re-test of the $3.50 bottom here and it holds, and if we get any positive draw downs in supply, then I'd go long UNG, or buy calls. Bottomline: Supply:Demand ain't pretty, but neither is Central Bank policy. SOTB