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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (9996)	6/25/2009 8:33:27 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86355

Well, Sam, I used to do statistics for a living and now I manage a team of people that do it for a living and the data is pretty obvious to me. These scientists who come up with these probabilities are doing statistics with the data. That's how they come up with these probabilities. Denying CO2 is a problem is akin to telling your doctor he's lying to you when he tells you there is a high probability that your high cholesterol will lead to heart problems. Denial and refusal to act would be a very foolish thing. This period of time we are living in is an obvious outlier based on the 800,000 years of ice core data we have. Only serious doubters could deny that fact. We can debate the root causes, but something very abnormal happened in the last 150 years to throw the natural cycles out of whack. Some say it is sunspots but that has already been eliminated as the prime root cause through statistical analysis. The fact is that CO2 has a higher R-squared than sunspots when correlated to temperature. Not sure why that takes a rocket scientists degree to understand. That alone would lead you to lean towards CO2 as being a key variable in the equation.

To: Sam who wrote (9996)	6/25/2009 8:36:02 PM
From: Brumar89	Respond to of 86355

I don't think its correct to say "it has been warming up for the past, oh, 15-20,000 years or so, since the end of last glacial period. Cause it was warmer than now during the Holocene Optimum: By 5000 to 3000 BC average global temperatures reached their maximum level during the Holocene and were 1 to 2 degrees Celsius warmer than they are today. Climatologists call this period either the Climatic Optimum or the Holocene Optimum. During the climatic optimum many of the Earth's great ancient civilizations began and flourished. In Africa, the Nile River had three times its present volume, indicating a much larger tropical region. 6,000 years ago the Sahara was far more fertile than today and supported large herds of animals, as evidenced by the Tassili N'Ajjer frescoes of Algeria (right). You should be familar with the name, timing, and significance to human civilization for the Climatic or Holocene Optimum. Interestingly, you will notice that events labeled "optimum" correspond to relatively warm periods From 3000 to 2000 BC a cooling trend occurred. This cooling caused large drops in sea level and the emergence of many islands (Bahamas) and coastal areas that are still above sea level today. A short warming trend took place from 2000 to 1500 BC, followed once again by colder conditions. Colder temperatures from 1500 - 750 BC caused renewed ice growth in continental glaciers and alpine glaciers, and a sea level drop of between 2 to 3 meters below present day levels. The period from 750 BC - 800 AD saw warming up to 150 BC. Temperatures, however, did not get as warm as the Climatic Optimum. During the time of Roman Empire (150 BC - 300 AD) a cooling began that lasted until about 900 AD. At its height, the cooling caused the Nile River (829 AD) and the Black Sea (800-801 AD) to freeze. The period 1100 - 1300 AD has been called either the Little Climatic Optimum or the Medieval Warm Period. It represents the warmest climate since the Climatic Optimum. Hvalsey church, in southwest Greenland, is the best-preserved artifact of Norse Greenlanders, who mysteriously disappeared in the 15th century. The cold winters of the little Ice Age were recorded in Dutch and Flemish paintings such as Hunters in the Snow by Pieter Bruegel (c. 1525-69) During this period, the Vikings established settlements on Greenland and Iceland. The snow line in the Rocky Mountains was about 370 meters above current levels. A period of cool and more extreme weather followed the Little Climatic Optimum. There are records of floods, great droughts and extreme seasonal climate fluctuations up to the 1400s. Horrendous floods devastated China in 1332 (reported to have killed several million people). A great drought in the American southwest occurred between 1276 and 1299. During this period occurred the abandonment of settlements in the Southwest United States, including those in Chaco Canyon and Mesa Verde. Tree ring analysis has identified a period of "no" rain between 1276 and 1299 in these areas. From 1550 to 1850 AD global temperatures were at their coldest since the beginning of the Holocene. Scientists call this period the Little Ice Age. During the Little Ice Age, the average annual temperature of the Northern Hemisphere was about 1 degree Celsius lower than today. Extreme weather during this period might have played an important role in the genesis of the Black Death (bubonic plague). The Little Ice Age was not continuously cold: the 13th-14th centuries were cold; followed by an interval of more favorable conditions; then a return of more severe weather mid 16th-mid 19th centuries. During the period 1580 to 1600, the western United States experienced one of its longest and most severe droughts in the last 500 years. Cold weather in Iceland from 1753 and 1759 caused 25% of the population to die from crop failure and famine. Newspapers in New England were calling 1816 the year without a summer. .... atmo.arizona.edu "It is close to time for this interglacial to end" - I agree. I disagree completely with your beliefs about human caused global warming. I used to believe it was true too, till I learned better.