To: average joe who wrote (51727 ) 6/25/2009 8:14:43 PM From: TobagoJack Respond to of 219889 small infraction compared to rule-enforcement elsewhere where indigenous lives are treated as so much garbage to be disposed off in the name of civilization spreading sounds vaguely familiar from the good old days though dressed new just in in-tray, per stratfor, in alignment with one of too many of obama's broken promises and so this presumably is why the n.koreans must not be allowed nukes, so that they can be bombed into submission at will, one could easily posit Pakistan: A UAV Strike Backfires Stratfor Today » June 25, 2009 | 1537 GMT TARIQ MAHMOOD/AFP/Getty Images Supporters of Pakistan’s fundamentalist party Jamaat-e-Islami shouting anti-U.S. slogans during a protest in Peshawar on April 24Summary An alleged U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strike against a funeral procession in the Pakistani region of South Waziristan on June 23 targeted Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Baitullah Mehsud, but did not kill him. Instead, it has caused more casualties than any suspected U.S. UAV strike since 2006. This strike, which Pakistani locals and media said was carried out by a U.S. UAV, likely will reinforce perception in Pakistan’s tribal area that the Pakistani military is putting U.S. interests ahead of the lives of Pakistani citizens. The strike likely will diminish public support for Pakistan’s nascent military offensive in Waziristan and will most likely lead to reprisal attacks in the near future. Analysis U.S. unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) allegedly conducted two separate strikes in South Waziristan on June 23. The first strike was on a suspected militant training camp in Tehsil Ladha and reportedly killed two people, including a Taliban commander. The second alleged UAV strike targeted a funeral procession in Najmarai in the Makeen area, which was being held for people killed in an alleged U.S. UAV strike just days earlier. Pakistani intelligence officials said they had information indicating that Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Baitullah Mehsud was in the village where the funeral took place but left before the strike. Between 60 and 80 people are being reported killed; and while it is not clear exactly who was killed, many civilians likely are among the dead. If this strike was carried out by a U.S. UAV, as Pakistani locals and media have asserted, this was the deadliest U.S. UAV strike since Oct. 30, 2006, when a UAV struck at a madrassa in Bajaur agency believed to be hiding al Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri. The October 2006 strike killed approximately 80 people and was condemned by many within Pakistan’s extreme and moderate camps. This was the strike that triggered a spate of suicide bombings that targeted police and military installations in the country and gained momentum after the Red Mosque operation in July 2007. The June 23 strike — which Washington has not claimed responsibility for — could be another in a long line of U.S. strikes on Pakistani soil. Not only are such strikes seen as violations of Pakistani sovereignty, but an attack aimed at a funeral procession is very likely to stir up resentment among the locals. It likely will be seen as not only a deliberate strike against civilians, but a strike at a religious target. Attacking a funeral is comparable to attacking a madrassa. An attack on a funeral procession endangers civilians while defiling a body — both of which could appeal to religious convictions on the sacredness of funeral rites. Reactions to the attack likely will make it easier for Mehsud to recruit more militants and win support from locals and Pakistanis across the country. The attack also undermines the government’s efforts to use Taliban suicide attacks during funerals of security officials killed in previous attacks to turn public opinion against the Taliban. Even though the United States is believed to have carried out the June 23 strike, the fallout will be hardest on Pakistani forces, who are preparing to move into the Waziristan area to go after Mehsud and his TTP forces. Operations such as this one succeed or fail based on the level of local support for either side. If the Pakistani military can win more people over, they can erode the support for TTP and Mehsud, making it easier to disrupt Mehsud’s operations and weaken the TTP, which is responsible for numerous recent attacks in both northwestern Pakistan and Pakistan’s core. Although Islamabad has publicly condemned the U.S. airstrikes, the popular sentiment in Pakistan is that the military is complicit in the U.S. strikes. While the Pakistanis would like the Americans to eliminate Mehsud, they are very concerned about not having a say in the execution of UAV attacks — a concern highlighted by incidents like the June 23 strike. The United States seems to be responding to this concern, as Gen. Stanley McChrystal, commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, is already moving to restrict such strikes. Pakistani forces preparing to move into Waziristan already face major challenges, as seen in the killing of Qari Zainuddin, a key tribal militia commander and critic of Mehsud’s TTP. Now, Mehsud can use the June 23 attack to argue that those who cooperate with the government will be cooperating with those responsible for the death of their own people.