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To: Megs who wrote (23155)10/28/1997 5:05:00 PM
From: mike iles  Respond to of 53903
 
Megs,

Don't mean to beat a dead horse, but the 20% number is out to lunch. Gumport of Lehman (I know, wacko for citing an analyst but maybe he got this right!) in his Sept. report says the breakdown of MU's chip sales in the Aug. Q was: 16 Mbit 90%; 64 Mbit 5%; 4 Mbit (yes Virginia they still make 'em) 2%; flash 2%; and SRAM 2%. These are dollar percentages.

Sync DRAM (SDRAM) will help the ASP this quarter. I hadn't taken it into account when estimating a $4 ASP. Probably should add 50-75 cents. Problem is in test and assembly. Last quarter when they only produced 8 million units of SDRAM it created a real bottleneck in T&A. On the cc management said that although bit production in the fab was up 30%, shipments into finished goods only increased by 12% ... because of T&A bottleneck. And they talked about taking 2 quarters to resolve the problem. Meantime, this Q they're ramping SDRAM unit production up by 4-5X. Where's the Alka Selzer? My model says they have to increase production by 8% this quarter to break even if their ASP is $4.75 (just realized the $4.75 is too high cause only about half their production will be SDRAM ... anyway my point is they're in deep kimshee).

regards, Mike



To: Megs who wrote (23155)10/28/1997 6:23:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Respond to of 53903
 
>>p.s. Thank you Hong Kong! I'm back into Micron.<<

yeah, but tk isn't ;-)



To: Megs who wrote (23155)10/29/1997 3:30:00 PM
From: Megs  Respond to of 53903
 
To all,
I totally agree with this column. I also don't mind the
Intel bashing. They need more of it. <g>

KIM KOMANDO: Get over yourself, Intel
Los Angeles Times Syndicate

(October 28, 1997 5:58 p.m. EST nando.net) - No doubt you've seen the new Intel
commercials for the Pentium II processor. They're the ones with the people in silly multicolored
space suits driving around in an even sillier multicolored van, demonstrating the Pentium II
processor to the world. It's kind of like the Partridge Family meets Devo. Why all the fuss?

In the good old days, it was easy to tell one computer chip from another. There was the 286, the
386 and the 486. The higher the number, the faster the chip -- not too hard to figure out.

After growing tired of expensive trademark disputes, Intel called what would have been the 586 a
Pentium and seems stuck on it. Then came the Pentium Pro. Then the Pentium with MMX
technology. And now the latest, the Pentium II, which is essentially a Pentium Pro with MMX.

(If you don't see the "Intel Inside" logo on a PC, it's a good bet that one of Intel's competitors got
there first. AMD hopes to gain sales with its MMX-capable K6 chip, which not only keeps pace
with Intel's Pentium II, but is cheaper. Cyrix's 6x86MX, formerly known as the M2, falls somewhere
between Intel's Pentium MMX and Pentium II in terms of performance and is more like AMD's K6 in
price).

With all these different classes of Pentium chips bouncing around the computer market, it's hard to
know what you really need.

Let me start out by explaining MMX. It stands for multimedia extensions, and it's more of a clever
innovation than a revolutionary new technology. The folks at Intel figured out how to fiddle with
some of the existing circuitry on a Pentium chip and optimize it for running multimedia applications
-- desktop video, computer animation, 3-D games and the like.

One thing you need to realize, though, is that MMX will only help you if you're using applications
that are designed to take advantage of MMX. Granted, there are plenty of software companies out
there developing MMX applications, but don't expect an MMX-enabled chip to do anything for
your current applications.

I can make this whole discussion a little easier by telling you to forget about the Pentium Pro
altogether. It's been sent to the CPU graveyard by the Pentium II, so you don't even have to
consider it when you're trying to sort out this chip madness.

That leaves you with the basic Pentium, the Pentium with MMX and the Pentium II, all of which are
available on the market right now. What's the best deal? It depends on what you want to do.

It was only a year or so ago that a 166-megahertz Pentium processor was the hot chip on the
market. It's still a darned fast chip, and since it's been knocked down a couple of notches on the
CPU totem pole, the price for a chip like this is very attractive.

In fact, you can get a complete system ("complete" in computer marketing means without the
monitor, something I've never quite figured out) for under a grand. And I'm not talking about some
funky computer from a no-name computer shop. Big names like Compaq and Hewlett-Packard are
now offering systems in this price range.

If you normally use your computer for what I call traditional applications -- word-processing,
spreadsheets, databases, e-mail, etc. -- this is plenty of computer. A home office user who isn't
engaged in highly graphical work is a likely candidate for one of these systems.

The next step up is a Pentium processor with MMX. If you're really into multimedia and gaming, this
is the type of system you should be looking at. Maybe your current games and multimedia titles
can't take advantage of the MMX technology, but the ones you buy next most likely will.

Naturally, you're going to pay more for a system like this, for a couple of reasons. First of all, the
CPU is more expensive. Furthermore, if you're the type of person who had to be the first on the
block with "Hexen II" or "Flight Simulator 98," you're probably also the person who wants a faster
CD-ROM drive, bigger multimedia speakers and a larger monitor than your
e-mail-and-word-processing neighbor. That all adds up.

This brings us to the Pentium II, the Big Kahuna, at least for the time being. Who in the home market
is likely to need a Pentium II? The truth is, hardly anybody. Despite what the foil-wrapped
demonstrators on the TV commercials might have you believe, the Pentium II is really a
workstation-class CPU.

By workstation-class, I mean the Pentium II is a great processor for high-end professional work. If
you make your living doing multimedia development, computer-assisted design or 3-D modeling of
some sort, a Pentium II is a worthwhile investment. It will definitely save you time -- and, as we all
know, in business, time is money.

So why is Intel pushing the Pentium II processor on TV? Well, when you consider that a fast
Pentium II processor costs about four times as much as that Pentium/166 chip, it's easy to see why
Intel would rather steer you toward the Pentium II.

Of course, many people will probably tell you that if you have the money, you're better off buying
the more expensive system now because it will serve you longer as technology advances.

That's true, but consider this: Suppose you have the option now to buy a Pentium system for $1,000
or a Pentium II system for $3,000. If you buy the Pentium system now and then wait for Pentium II
prices to drop (which they inevitably will) to the point where you can upgrade for an additional
$1,500, you'll be $500 ahead of the game, and you'll have spread that expense out over a longer
period.

My bottom-line advice: Unless you have money to burn, buy what you need now and upgrade
when the time is right.

KIM KOMANDO can be reached at komando@komando.com. His column is distributed by the
Los Angeles Times Syndicate.