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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (6216)	10/29/1997 12:39:00 PM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Roger: I use a private client service through a regional broker. Today the assistant mentioned to me the tape had lagged as much as two minutes on current trade quotes in several securities. The spike downward in '87 was the only other time I was aware that the tape was behind--then it was estimated to be as much as 20 minutes--and people including brokers and specialists were panicking. I was taking a break from a technical conference and called my broker to routinely ask him how the market was. I thought he was joking when he said the market is down 500 maybe 800 points. I said he was kidding. Not the case. So I asked where the market was and he said the tape was so far behind that nobody knew and they thought it might be 500, 800, maybe even 900 points. He said it was crazy--people were stacked up trying to sell at market and there were no accurate quotes. With a big drop, useless quotes, I think everyone who is stuck but not speculating becomes an investor until they can find out just what their investment is. I use a full service broker for the presumably better access. The telephone is answered within a few rings, and I am not more than a minute from a broker even if mine is out of the office. A designated broker covers for mine when mine is away. I have inquired about sending electronic messages, but the answser I get is that the firewalls and security systems are so cumbersome and would take some time to boot through that it would not be easy to do and may be questionable speedwise. Part of the security is to protect client accounts from hackers, which I appreciate. I think my broker said something like it takes him some time to get tied into the office, that a number of programs have to fire up before he gets access. My impression was a 5 to 15 minute process. He is quite computer literate, too. And he seems to be able to juggle details of his 300+ clients in his head pretty well, and also uses computerized aids. I'm a seed potato--maybe someday to become a small potato investor. I tend to like major run days. I used to play triple witching hour with OEX options, THE hour before close. It was fairly routine to gain 20% or so in that hour with a stake between $200-2000. Experience, recent environment, and intuition guided my positions. There also had to be an anticipated course from something pent up, too. One had to remain adaptatable on the fly. The main thing was to be a small investor, be nimble, and pay attention closely for an hour. Then the trading rules were altered, the volatility diminished, and it was no longer worthwhile. The crumbs dried up.... Occasional swing days are healthy--prunes thinking back to reality rather than letting the greater-fool-than-I thinking consume the investor's mentality. When investors are panicky, it seems to be an opportune time to trade. Unfortunately this Monday night I spent so much time prepping for the Tuesday open, that I missed it. Rats! There were some pretty decent moves--we could pretty well anticipate it would be a hard down or a rapid gains day. Guess I like a dose of insanity--keeps sanity in healthier perspective. Again, I appreciate your thoughts and wisdom in this forum. It seems you have been blessed with a gift for investing. I hope it is God's plan that we profit from the talents and wisdom given to you. Onward and upward.... Best regards, MDR