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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (122120)7/1/2009 3:17:44 PM
From: axial  Respond to of 206133
 
Good point about USD weakness Arch; no excusing its absence. It plays hell with pricing expectations.

Consider it included!

Jim



To: Archie Meeties who wrote (122120)7/1/2009 3:36:33 PM
From: daveinmarinca  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206133
 
Wiggins smells something different.....view from AgoraFinancial.com, yesterday's 5 Minute Forecast, a daily email.

"The dollar index remains in a tight range. Yesterday it dwelled just below 80. Today, thanks to perverse market reasoning, the dollar index is up to 80.1… falling consumer confidence would suggest coming consumer withdrawal, thus the value of cash inches up.

“Dollar action is still the key driver for commodities,” writes our resource trader Alan Knuckman. “After a modest rise in the past two weeks, the dollar index has moved below 80 once again. A test of the December lows at 78 can lead to a BIG BREAK to last summer’s lows of 72. Rates are not going up anytime soon, and the dollar is still heavy, with continued new Treasury issuance scheduled to finance government projects and spending.

“This all bodes well for commodities, which, for the most part, are priced in U.S. dollars.

“Dollar goes down, commodities go up and energy prices will lead the way higher. Not to a destructively high price that chokes economic recovery, but to levels that send energy stocks on a bullish move and support the stock indexes with increases in their share prices.”

As does Jesse ..... jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com



To: Archie Meeties who wrote (122120)7/2/2009 6:45:40 AM
From: Ed Ajootian5 Recommendations  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 206133
 
Arch, what about China, India, and the other developing countries? My recollection is that in this last boom, increases in those countries' oil demand more that offset the minor decreases to the oil demand of the more developed nations.

Also, even though we are in the worst worldwide recession since the 30's, worldwide spare oil production is only down to around the same level it was in '02 or thereabouts. This is strong evidence of the supply/demand balance being a lot tighter than in previous decades.