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To: MythMan who wrote (389774)	7/2/2009 7:20:09 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Respond to of 436258

Concurrent Seasonal Factor Bias. The pattern of impossible biases being built into the headline monthly payroll employment continued, with an upside bias of 46,000 jobs in June 2009 reporting (see the accompanying graph). Instead of the headline jobs loss of 467,000, consistent application of seasonal-adjustment factors — net of what I call the concurrent seasonal factor bias (CSFB) — would have shown a more-severe monthly jobs loss of about 513,000. This pattern has generated an upside reporting bias seen in 10 of the last 12 months, with a rolling 12-month total upside headline-number bias of 1,210,000. A worksheet on this is available upon request. (See SGS Newsletter No. 50, for further background.)