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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: XBrit who wrote (99272)	7/4/2009 7:47:15 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	3 Recommendations Respond to of 116555

Of course, "Sell in May". Notions, however, of retesting the lows without going much higher before that are absurd. This is a typical bull market consolidation. Heck, even after yesterday we have barely lost ~6% from the top. I think the SPX will be over 1,000 by December. Meanwhile, I expect Emerging Markets to go up 3x whatever the US does. The only question I have is how far do we go up before the next black swan in 2010?

To: XBrit who wrote (99272)	7/15/2009 9:12:56 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Still maintain the response I sent to you. It's funny how gold/silver bugs are thinking their positions will rise while everything will fall. Everything is the same trade...it's all correlated...it's just a function of beta and the mining play is a beautiful beta play to the upside. I think cross correlations across sectors/instruments are even more today than in 2007. It's a great thing when things go up - which I think continues as the comps in Q3/Q4 will be absolutely pathetic. It's a nightmare when it falls. Think 2008. The trouble potentially comes in 2010 especially if we have a "W" recovery. Heck maybe there's even a retest if we get some sort of black swan. Still, there's a boatload of money to be made between now (say, September) and March 2010 especially if the rally becomes narrow (commodities, technology,...). Think 1999...