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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Warrants Only -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: onepath who wrote (8898)	7/4/2009 12:23:31 AM
From: koan	Respond to of 23093

Very good. Everyone should watch that.

To: onepath who wrote (8898)	7/4/2009 7:32:20 AM
From: tyc:>	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23093

On another thread I mentioned I had taken some TRX money off the table because of its recent decline. I should have mentioned I replaced it with warrants. Right now, we (and everyone else) are enthusiastic about LSG. Compare LSG's YTD chart with that of TRX.... they both show a 100% gain . IMHO the TRX's ytd chart is the equal of LSG's. The 100 day Historic Volatility of TRX is 96%. Given that volatility, the trend of the stock YTD, and the uncertainty of events to come (risk), the warrants deserve attention. Using the hoadley calculator and Black Scholes, one calculates an option delta of 50% (from memory). That says that 2 warrants would provide a hedge for 1 share of common stock. In other words, the warrant has an immediate upside equal to 50% of a common share.... and 50% of a common share is worth considerably more than the current warrant price. (Personally, I don't think the delta is actually as high as BS indicates.... I think it is more like 30% at current levels, increasing as/if the stock moves higher. Even this lower delta is attractive to me). The warrants appear illiquid at present. If one buys them there is no guarantee that one would find a subsequent buyer. so Caveat Emptor.

To: onepath who wrote (8898)	7/5/2009 5:16:44 AM
From: PaperPerson	Respond to of 23093

OnePath - thanks for the link to the Simon Johnson interview. Tremendously informed interview!!! Michael

To: onepath who wrote (8898)	7/5/2009 9:08:31 AM
From: tyc:>	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23093

>>"Well worth the lesson...." I am currently reading a book, "When Markets Collide" by Mohamed El-Erian. The sub-title is "Investment strategies for the age of global economic change". The author is an intellectual, the co-CEO of one of the largest investment management companies in the world. He spent 15 years at the IMF. The book purports to alert readers to fundamental changes taking place in today's global systems. It talks about today rather than yesterday. It doesn't recall what happened in the India at the time of the British Raj. Of course, the book's conclusions are quite different from those in the two "lessons" you quoted. I don't have the intellect to choose between them... Why is it so important to take any notice of them, when what I am interested in is following market prices, especially those that are (or have been) going UP ! That's my reality.... the future is uncertainty and I am sceptical of lessons purporting to dispel that uncertainty.... ( I notice how popular forecasts of doom are in the media, but I continue to be more interested in your opinions on stocks and warrants. So no recco's for these postings from me, onepath !