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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Fukuba who wrote (13039)	10/28/1997 6:43:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

The best post during this crisis- \| Next \| Respond \| Remove Navigation To: +Burjis S. (12892 ) From: +bob wallace Monday, Oct 27 1997 8:42PM EST Reply #12894 of 13043 I note that this thread is pretty quite tonight, so I am wondeing if anyone has read a book called "PANIC PROFITS" by Joh D Brown? Well, in case anyone hasn't <G>, the market action of the last three days pretty well fits the profiles of panic -sudden -violent -continious barrage of bearish news -extremely high volumes -intense -instant fear that this is the beginning of the end Relax. This has all happened before: prifile of 7 panics which inparticular marked the end of a bull market: -they all happened between Oct and Dec, market highs were primarily in Sept or Aug -the average Dow decline before the panic was 7.5% -the averge Dow decline during the panic was 22% -everyone of them struck "while the bull market was assumed to still be in progress, and thus remain among the most frightening of all such instances" THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT EVERYONE OF THEM WAS FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFCANT REBOUND If you figure this particular panic started on the 23rd, then we are about half through in terms of the average total decline (the smallest decline was 14%, the median decline was 17%, the biggest was 40%). In terms of duration, two of them lasted 5 days or less, the rest from 11 up to 22 days. So as Ike said, let's let the market find the bottom, keep our powder dry, and be ready to buy, because even if this is the end of the bull, a good rally will follow like night follows day. Also, it is probably too late to do any selling, though I will sell off a couple of utilities that amazingly enough still have some profit in them. Need that margin next week <G> Be glad to answer any questions about the book Bob

To: Brian Fukuba who wrote (13039)	10/28/1997 6:51:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 50167

-Markets are a very humbling experience- when they are up never loose the sight of big picture-think of strategies when they will be down. lesson 1- We will on rally tomorrow or break will establish protective cover

To: Brian Fukuba who wrote (13039)	10/29/1997 9:42:00 AM
From: Brian Fukuba	Respond to of 50167

Economic Calendar: Durable Orders -0.6% From: briefing.com Week of October 27 - October 31 Actual Date Time Release Period Forecast Market Previous 10/27 Cahners BCI Oct 64.1 65.5 66.3 10/27 10:00 Existing Home Sls Sep 4.32M N/A 4.32M 10/28 08:30 Employment Cost Idx Q3 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 10/28 09:00 Mitsubishi Index 10/25 -0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 10/28 10:00 Consumer Confidence Oct 123.3 127.5 130.2 R 10/28 11:00 Treasury Budget Sep $49.3B $48.0B -$35.2B R 10/28 14:55 LJR Redbook 10/25 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 10/29 08:30 Durable Orders Sep -0.6% -1.3% 2.8% R 10/29 12:00 Fed Beige Book --- N/A N/A N/A 10/30 08:30 Initial Claims 10/25 N/A N/A N/A 10/30 08:30 APICS Survey Oct N/A N/A 54.3 10/30 10:00 New Home Sales Sep 825K N/A 800K 10/30 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Sep N/A N/A 84 10/30 16:30 M2 10/20 N/A N/A N/A 10/31 08:30 GDP (Advance) Q3 3.5% N/A 3.3% 10/31 08:30 GDP Chain Deflator Q3 2.4% N/A 1.8% 10/31 10:00 Chicago PMI Oct 60.0% N/A 61.2% 10/31 10:00 Michigan Sentiment Oct 105.2 N/A 105.2 10/31 15:00 Farm Prices Oct N/A N/A UNCH Cahners BCI Review: N/A Existing Home Sales: briefing.com Employment Cost Index: briefing.com Mitsubishi Index/LJR Redbook: briefing.com Consumer Confidence: briefing.com Treasury Budget: briefing.com Durable Orders: briefing.com Initial Clains: briefing.com New Home Sales: briefing.com M2: briefing.com GDP: briefing.com Chicago PMI: briefing.com Michigan Sentiment briefing.com *note: time reporting is Eastern time. This was captured from briefing.com Actual #'s R Revised #'s Will try to post #'s as soon as they are released. bri