To: TobagoJack who wrote (52116 ) 7/5/2009 6:01:21 AM From: elmatador Respond to of 217901 Dubai Expat Exodus Hots Up As Boom Yrs End,Econ Suffers forced to close his business and flee to the U.K. with his pregnant wife and three children to escape potential criminal charges and alleged threats on his life by creditors after Blue Banana failed. Dubai Expat Exodus Hots Up As Boom Yrs End,Econ Suffers By Stefania Bianchi Of ZAWYA DOW JONES DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones)--British entrepreneur Simon Ford came to Dubai in 2004 with ambitious goals, setting up a gift experience business called "Blue Banana" aimed at the throngs of expatriates flocking to the Persian Gulf boomtown. But boom turned to bust and with an exodus of "white collar" foreigners losing their jobs and leaving the emirate, Ford's Dubai dream ended. The 34-year old last week was forced to close his business and flee to the U.K. with his pregnant wife and three children to escape potential criminal charges and alleged threats on his life by creditors after Blue Banana failed. "I have been through the most soul destroying and emotionally horrific four days of my life," Ford said in an emotional letter "to the Dubai public". "The unfortunate reality is that the businesses debt accumulation has grown exponentially since the last quarter of 2008." Ford is just one of thousands of expatriates for whom the Dubai dream has ended, leading many analysts to forecast a worsening outlook for the sheikhdom's economy as its population shrinks. Many foreigners who normally leave Dubai in the summer to escape the sweltering desert heat aren't expected to return this year, adding to the emirate's economic woes. School closing for the summer could trigger a wave of expats leaving. "The summer period will be crucial with the expected exodus of expatriates after the school year-end," said Nabil Ahmed head of research for Deutsche Bank in Dubai. The bank says an expatriate exodus over the summer could prompt a 15-20% fall in property prices on top of declines already this year. It expects Dubai's population to contract 10% this year due to layoffs. Deutsche's glum assessment is backed up by Standard Chartered, which also warns of a "major population outflow in the coming months". More than 100,000 British are thought to live in the United Arab Emirates, mostly in Dubai, according to the British Embassy. ABANDONED HOUSE CATS While it's difficult to obtain firm data on the expected number of foreigners leaving - the government also dismisses claims of exiting expatriates - anecdotal evidence suggests otherwise. Relocation firms are seeing a sharp rise in families moving away from Dubai. Some companies say they're fully booked until mid-July and are expecting a surge in activity when schools close this month. Jumeirah, once one of Dubai's most sought after residential districts, is now littered with signs pointing to garage sales and property to let as its residents cut their losses and leave. Allied Pickfords, one of the largest international moving companies, said it's handling about 25 relocations away from Dubai each day. "We're probably 20% to 30% busier this year than last year," said Mac Perez, corporate manager of Allied Pickfords in the U.A.E. "However, the inquiry levels for relocations to the U.A.E. has decreased." Pet refuges are inundated with requests from departing owners to take care of unwanted dogs and house cats. Dubai-based cats home Feline Friends gets 10 calls a day from people skipping town in a rush. "We're supposed to have room for 80 cats and 10 emergency spaces, but we have 120 cats at the moment. Summer is always a difficult time but this year is a lot worse," one helpline worker said. To be sure, the city isn't a ghost town, even though the streets are noticeably quieter. Some sectors have shown modest signs of recovery in recent months after Dubai announced a $20 billion bond program to bail out its economy in February. The U.A.E. central bank immediately bought up the first tranche of $10 billion, most of which has been dispersed to government-linked firms. Although the summer's expat departure is likely to stall Dubai's road to recovery, analysts say it could also signal that the worst is over. "Things will be a lot clearer in September and should point towards a recovery in the next few quarters after that," said Philipp Lotter, senior vice president at Moody's Investors Service in the Middle East. By Stefania Bianchi, Dow Jones Newswires; +971 4 3644967; stefania.bianchi@dowjones.com Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Co.