Obama Gets Boost as Palin Departure Deepens Republican Disarray
By Julianna Goldman and Edwin Chen
July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama’s honeymoon with the public, like those of previous presidents, is waning after almost six months in office. He still enjoys one asset most others lacked: an opposition party in disarray.
Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s surprise resignation July 3 was only the latest Republican headache involving some of the party’s potential stars. While Obama’s job approval, hovering around 60 percent, has dipped, ratings for the Republican Party have nosedived.
According to Gallup polling, just 34 percent of Americans view the party favorably. Even among Republicans, 38 percent have an unfavorable view of their party and almost half can’t name an individual who speaks for it. And those polls were conducted before Palin resigned and two other Republicans, Governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Senator John Ensign of Nevada, acknowledged having extramarital affairs.
“We’re in a really difficult period, and it’s going to take some time to get out of it,” Republican strategist John Weaver said in an interview yesterday. “It could take a generation or two, quite frankly.”
The party’s fortunes may be even bleaker than after the Watergate scandal that brought down former President Richard Nixon and during the Great Depression after Herbert Hoover’s presidency, Weaver said.
Palin Resignation
Palin’s announcement that she will leave the governorship later this month presents an entirely different situation than those of Ensign and Sanford, who remain in office although their political futures are tarnished.
Palin, 45, the 2008 Republican vice-presidential nominee, hasn’t said whether her decision to resign was a prelude to a presidential campaign or if it was related to ethics complaints that dogged her tenure as governor. She has said that more than 15 ethics complaints had been dismissed and her legal defense cost more than $500,000.
Her move “just leaves you weaker,” said Eddie Mahe, a Republican strategist who said the party needs new stars. “The hope has to be that there’s some folks out there somewhere who are contemplating getting involved in public life.”
Other developments compounding the party’s woes have been Republican National Chairman Michael Steele’s apology to radio show host Rush Limbaugh in March after Steele dismissed the commentator as an “entertainer,” Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter’s defection in April to the Democrats and Norm Coleman’s defeat last week after a lengthy Minnesota Senate recount and court fight.
Late-Night Comics
The information the American public is “currently getting about the Republican Party is all bad, from late-night comics to mainstream news,” said Democratic strategist Steve Elmendorf.
White House officials and some other Democrats say they are aware of the ebb and flow of politics and say the Palin, Sanford and Ensign distractions are side-shows.
“We fundamentally believe that by getting big things done, by solving problems, by moving the country forward, that’s good politics,” White House senior adviser David Axelrod said in an interview yesterday. “We try not to get distracted by the small politics that sometimes consumes this town.”
Even as Obama’s approval ratings have dipped, the disarray among Republicans has prevented them from capitalizing on Democratic differences surrounding an issue Republicans were so successful at scuttling in 1994: health-care overhaul.
Health-Care Divisions
As the Democrat-controlled Congress tries to hash out the details of Obama’s signature domestic issue, the party is divided over whether to tax employer-provided health insurance and whether to create a government-run plan to cover the uninsured. Republicans so far haven’t gained traction in coming up with alternatives or blocking the measure.
“A more focused and on-point minority would be more troubling, but I think that has a lot to do with the quality of ideas,” Axelrod said. “They need to regenerate themselves as an intellectual force and they haven’t done that work yet.”
The problem isn’t only the message, it’s also the messenger -- and for Republicans there isn’t anyone to deliver it, especially on health care, said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press in Washington.
“That’s an issue which the public has great concerns about: the influence and role of the government,” said Kohut. “That’s a traditional Republican theme and one that they possibly can exploit,” he said. “But they need to have people on the national stage who can make that pitch.”
Tough Issues
The Republicans may eventually coalesce around Democratic discord on health care as Obama deals with tough issues that include climate change, Afghanistan and Pakistan, the economic recession and mounting deficits.
“Things aren’t a bed of roses for him either,” said Charlie Cook, a Washington-based independent political analyst.
“It seems like every decade, at some point, one party or the other is written off as dead, and each time, it seems more serious than previous times,” Cook said. “Obama is obviously an extraordinarily gifted politician, and his talent only heightens the contrast with the plight of Republicans.”
By keeping his approval ratings above 55 percent, Obama’s honeymoon has exceeded those of former Presidents Gerald Ford, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. If he maintains that level through the summer, he will match former Presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, according to Gallup.
Poll Comparisons
At similar points in their presidencies, Bush was at 54 percent in 2001, Clinton was at 41 percent in 1993, Reagan was at 59 percent in 1981 and Carter was at 63 percent in 1977, according to Gallup.
As for Palin, who ran for vice president as a fresh alternative for her party, supporters say it’s too soon to rule out a political future.
“It is totally premature to interpret Sarah Palin’s announcement as a withdrawal from American politics,” Gary Bauer, president of Washington-based American Values, which opposes abortion and gay marriage, said in a statement.
Palin hinted as much in a statement posted on Facebook, saying that she was leaving her office for a “higher calling,” and would keep working to “help our nation achieve greatness.” Her spokeswoman Meghan Stapleton confirmed the statement, the Associated Press reported.
Yesterday, Palin Twittered that her family was fishing: “As has been the case for decades, family is commercial fishing in Bristol Bay - I look forward to joining the work crew for 1 day picking fish.”
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To contact the reporter on this story: Julianna Goldman in Washington at jgoldman6@bloomberg.net; Edwin Chen in Washington at echen32@bloomberg.net; |
