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To: axial who wrote (122219)	7/6/2009 11:02:54 AM
From: Paul Kern	Respond to of 206135

U.S. ISM Service Industries Index Increased to 47 (Update2) By Bob Willis July 6 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. service industries from retailers to homebuilders contracted last month at the slowest pace in nine months, as measures of new orders and employment improved. The Institute for Supply Management’s index of non- manufacturing businesses, which make up almost 90 percent of the economy, rose to 47 -- higher than forecast -- from 44 in May, according to data from the Tempe, Arizona-based group. Readings less than 50 signal contraction. The index’s third straight monthly improvement reflects signs of stabilization in housing and consumer spending. That combined with leaner inventories means companies may start expanding output again in coming months. Still, mounting job losses and stagnant wages are likely to restrain some purchases, limiting the impact of any recovery. “The gradual improvement is very good news,” Ellen Zentner, a senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview. The services index “should continue to track improvement in the broader economy,” she said. The index was projected to increase to 46, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 64 economists. Estimates ranged from 44 to 48. The ISM non-manufacturing industries index of employment rose to 43.4 from 39 the prior month, and its gauge of new orders increased to 48.6 from 44.4. ‘Encouraging Report’ A measure of prices paid rose to 53.7 from 46.9. The measure of new export orders gained to 54.5 from 47. “Overall, it’s an encouraging report,” Anthony Nieves, chairman of the ISM survey, told reporters on a conference call from Beverly Hills, California. “We’re starting to see this leveling off. In the next few months, we might see some uptick.” Recent data have pointed to a diminishing pace of decline for the economy. Manufacturing shrank last month at the slowest rate since August, according to ISM’s factory index released July 1, and a measure of pending home sales advanced in May for a fourth month. Homebuilding, which is included in the services index, may be past its worst declines. Construction of single-family homes advanced in May for a third month after reaching a record low, according to figures from the Commerce Department. Labor Market At the same time, the weak labor market may weigh on the index in future months as some Americans spend less until their employment status is more secure. Job losses in June were 467,000, worse than forecast, and the unemployment rate rose to a quarter-century high of 9.5 percent, the Labor Department said on July 2. Service providers cut 244,000 jobs, more than twice the level the prior month. Even so, consumer confidence has picked up as markets recover losses. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is 31 percent higher than on March 9 when it hit 676.53, the lowest level in 12 years, amid signs economic growth may resume this year. The index was at 887.58 as of 10:31 a.m. today in New York. Personal spending, bolstered by tax refunds and lower payroll withholdings from the Obama stimulus plan, rose in three of the five months through May. Consumers are coping with the recession by spending more time online searching for discounts, Google Inc. Chief Executive Officer Eric Schmidt said June 30 in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “Consumers behave exactly right: They spend more time and they buy bargains,” Schmidt said. “The luxury stuff is off, and the core stuff that people need, they are buying more of.” Federal Reserve policy makers said June 24 at the end of a two-day meeting in Washington that “the pace of economic contraction is slowing” and financial market conditions have “generally improved.” Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in early June said the economy will grow at an average 1.2 percent pace in the second half of the year following four quarters of contraction. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net Last Updated: July 6, 2009 10:39 EDT

To: axial who wrote (122219)	7/6/2009 11:07:48 AM
From: Salt'n'Peppa	Respond to of 206135

Nice palindromic post number TRIG! Not such a good call as I have been short oil (short HOU.TO) since $52 and ridden this one through the current cycle. I doubled down in late May. Wish I'd had the 'nads to double down again at $73 WTI. My break-even with daily rebalancing of HOU is now at $60.50/bbl, so almost there. I may even make a few bucks if pessimism carries WTI below $60/bbl, though will likely play safe and just cover, if it gets there. :-) Nobody expected optimism and speculation to push it to $73, least of all Goldman Sachs, who called for a top at $62 in May. Cheers, S&P