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To: Sober who wrote (79823)	7/6/2009 6:02:59 PM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 118717

Me too!<g> I just think that these pullbacks to the baseline are good for the overall economy. Now that we've had about a 10% pullback from mid June, it's kept oil prices from getting past $80 and keeping mortgage rates from soaring back to 6%. A week ago, everyone was looking at the golden cross as the 50 dma crossed the 200 dma. This week, they are looking at the head and shoulders numbers on the S & P at 877. I tend to ignore the first couple of trading days in any new quarter to let some of the window dressing come out of the market. After taking it easy for the past couple of weeks, I'm starting to wade back into the market today. With earnings season around the corner, there will be plenty of action for the next couple of months. So far, the DOW range still seems very much intact with support around 8200. I was a bit surprised to see the market open up so weak to let people get back in this morning, with nothing but the same pattern of less bad than expected economic news. The biggest divergence now is the unemployment rate, which only went up .1% last month as jobless claims continue to fall. By July or August, it wouldn't shock me if the unemployment rate began to fall if jobless claims continue to fall under 250K which is when things really got out of control last October. Eventually, some of the unemployment benefits are going to run out from last October or November. Unemployment numbers can only go higher as long as higher numbers of people are being put out of work. The slope of the unemployment trend is starting to look very toppy to me.