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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brad Hill who wrote (27321)	10/29/1997 7:05:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Brad, I had to respond to your insightful question which I have also been pondering, concerning the days of 20% gains being over and volitility. It is a very big concern to me since I mainly play options and I need the volitility. As for volitility, I strongly feel that it will not be until we hit a true BEAR market that it will decline since the market is not much more dynamic due to several reasons, 2 of which are increased global effects and volume. I heard on CNBC that the volume yesterday was as much as a month's volume going back to the Kennedy's years. The money keeps on growing due to demographics/increasing # of investors due to age/salarie growth/ increased greed/ etc. Now when I mentioned the true BEAR market, Im speaking of an extended period of time(could be years - the true BIG KAHUNA, which most of us have not even got a small taste of it yet) when the market is flat after a huge huge decline, whereby fluctuations of stock prices will be so small that both shorts and longs will not make money and the bond market will be the choice method of investment. Such would probably be caused by a major change in the economics such as domestic recession, and probably the greatest BEAR market will be when there is Global recession. Up till then, I feel volitility will still be strong and may still increase. The volitility of the past 2 days may be the hint of whats to come. I have noticed that I make the most money when the market is trading in a large range, say 500-700 Dow points. The psychology of making alot of money in a downtrend is extremely tough, few have it. I dont yet. Making a whole lot in an long extended uptrend is also tough while playing options. I will get in at least once but thereafter have to wait a long period. In a range trading period I may get CLASS 1 BUY signals every 2-3 weeks, while in an strong uptrend only 1 in a period of 1-2 months.