Version 6
To this thread -
Below is my estimate for BIOX in 1998.
It will modified 1 last time once 4th qtr. is in.
-----------------------------
My guess for 4th qtr 97 is:
-----------------------------
AHP - USA Revenues of $5,000
No license fees -0-
Total Revenues $7,000
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------
4th qtr E.P.S. $.10
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Full Yr 97 E.P.S of $1.31
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------
While not apparent, BIOX is looking at a tough
launch Window.
In effect, AHP sales force does not get the product
until Nov 15th, and allowing 2 weeks for XMAS
vaction time, there is only 4 weeks of meaningful
SELL-IN.
As such, 1st qtr. 1998 becomes the real SELL-IN qtr. ($8,000)
Consequently, 2nd qtr. 1998 becomes the pivotal qtr. ($10,000)
in terms of SELL-THRU.
We should know at the end of the 2nd quarter how Synvisc
has been received by the marketplace.
Regards,
John McCarthy
------------
FDA Approved
------------
Sy3= Synvisc@35% of Retail $-Osteoarthritis-Liquid prosthesis
Sy1= Synvisc@100% of Retail $-Osteoarthritis-Liquid prosthesis
-----------------
FDA Expected 1997
Hf = Hylaform -Facial Wrinkles-Hylan device
-----------------
----------------
NOT FDA APPROVED
----------------
Sold in Canada/Italy
Hs = Hylashield -Eye drops -Protect Eyes
====================================
Major Assumption:
1998 USA Revenues from Synvisc
====================================
Annual AHP @ Retail $135,000,000
Annual Price (2 visits/yr) 1,000
BIOX % of AHP .35
BIOX $ Gross Rev $47,250,000
Implied about AHP
====================================
1998 Patients Treated 135,000
Total Target
Patient Population 7,000,000
1998 % Treated 1.93%
Total Osteoarthritis
Population 15,600,000
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Biomatrix (BIOX) - 1998 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1998
===================================================================
Pr Loc Dist
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Sy3 USA (AHP) 8,000 10,000 13,000 16,000 47,000
Sy3 NON-USA (AHP) 500 800 1,200 1,600 4,100
Sy3 France (Boe Ing) 350 350 350 350 1,400
Sy3 Canada (RPR) 450 450 450 450 1,800
Sy3 Sweden (Roche) 250 250 250 250 1,000
Sy3 Isr./FE (Bayer AG) 150 150 150 150 600
Sy3 Italy (Recdati) 75 75 75 75 300
Sy1 England (Biox) 50 100 200 200 550
Sy1 China (Biox) 25 50 100 100 275
Sy1 Norway (Biox) 1 1 1 1 4
Sy1 Finland (Biox) 1 1 1 1 4
Sy1 Switzer (Biox) 1 1 1 1 4
Hf USA (Collagen) 0 500 750 750 2,000
Hf NON-USA (Collagen) 500 500 500 500 2,000
Hs ITAL (Far Farm) 50 50 50 50 200
Other (Biox) 300 300 300 300 1,200
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total Product Sales 10,703 13,578 17,378 20,778 62,437
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Memo:Seq. % N/A 27 28 20
Memo:Yr/Yr % 463 638 891 N/A
--------------------
Milestone Fees
--------------------
AHP 1,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 7,000
Boehringer Ingelheim 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 4,000
Bayer AG 0 0 1,000 1,000 2,000
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total Fees 2,000 3,000 4,000 4,000 13,000
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total Net Revenues 12,703 16,578 21,378 24,778 75,437
================== ====== ======= ======= ======= =======
Product GM (Avg. %) .65 .65 .65 .65 .65
Product GM $ 6,957 8,826 11,296 13,506 40,584
License GM $ 2,000 3,000 4,000 4,000 13,000
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total GM $ 8,957 11,826 15,296 17,506 53,584
=================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
--------------------
R & D
--------------------
Hylagel/Sur.Adhes/Ph1 600 625 650 675 2,550
Hylasine/EarNose/Ph1 550 575 600 625 2,350
Hylasol/Opth Sur/Ph1 200 225 250 275 950
Other 300 300 300 300 1,200
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total R&D 1,650 1,725 1,800 1,875 7,050
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Memo:1997 (est.) 1,380 1,426 1,532 1,600 5,938
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
--------------------
SG&A
--------------------
Normal 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 9,400
Sy England (Biox) 350 300 250 200 1,100
Sy China (Biox) 350 300 250 200 1,100
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total SG&A 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 11,600
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Memo:1997 (est.) 1,409 1,883 1,969 2,150 7,411
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Total R&D/SG&A 4,550 4,625 4,700 4,775 18,650
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Inc. from Operations 4,407 7,201 10,596 12,731 34,934
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Int.Income- Net (4%) 235 267 320 396 1,218
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
EBT 4,642 7,468 10,915 13,127 36,152
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Tax Prov. (%) .30 .30 .30 .30 .30
Tax Prov. ($) 1,393 2,240 3,275 3,938 10,846
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
EAT 3,249 5,228 7,641 9,189 25,307
================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
Cash/Mrt.Sec-BOP 23,500 26,749 31,977 39,618 -
================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
Shares Outstanding 11,900 11,900 11,900 11,900 11,900
================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
E.P.S .27 .44 .64 .77 2.13
================== ======= ======= ======= ======= =======
@ PE / Share Price
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
20 42.00
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
25 53.00
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
30 64.00
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
35 74.00
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
40 85.00
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
45 95.00
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
50 106.00
-------------------- ------- ------- ------- ------- -------
Notes:
===========================
A.Amendment 5/29/97 to increase auth. shares
===========================
TO 60,000,000
FROM 20,000,000.
Don't know if ratified.
===========================
B.Ownership at 3/1/97
===========================
Endre A. Balazs 2,161,519 20%
Janet I. Denlinger 1,099,085 10%
H. Stuart Campbell 61,248
Rory B. Riggs 600,000 6%
Others 54,000
Shares Outstanding 6/30/97 11,158,098
===========================
C. Distribution Agreements
===========================
Boehringer Ingelheim - 12/18/96
-------------------------------
Fee:$8.0 million
France,Algeria,Morocco
Req. Biomedical Specialists:5
----------------------------------
Estimated License Payment Schedule
----------------------------------
1996 -0-
1997 -0-
1998 4
1999 4
-----------------------------
Wyeth-Ayerst (AHP) - 2/10/97
-----------------------------
Fee:$25.0 million
USA
Germany,Austria,Greece,Spain,Portuagal
Poland,Hungry,Romania,Bulgaria,Check
Turkey,Saudi Arabia,Egypt,Syria,Jordan
Req. Biomedical Specialists:Yes(# unknown)
----------------------------------
Estimated License Payment Schedule
----------------------------------
1996 -0-
1997 16
1998 7
1999 -0-
--------------------
Bayer AG - 4/29/97
--------------------
Fee:$5.0 million
Israel,Australia,New Zeland,Taiwan,Singapore
Indonesia,Thailand,Maylaysia
Req. Biomedical Specialists:2
----------------------------------
Estimated License Payment Schedule
----------------------------------
1996 -0-
1997 3
1998 2
1999 -0-
----------------------------------
Competitors to Synvisc
----------------------------------
ANIK - in Phase 3
for more info see Edurado on the ANIK thread
he is *very* smart.
Sanofi - don't know status but its coming.
----------------------------------
About Hylaform -
Sold by Collegen
here is some info from them
----------------------------------
--------------------
Collagen 10Q - Sept 97
--------------------
In June 1996, the Company entered into a
distribution ("Biomatrix") ... Hylaform(R) ...
*********** Read this **********
The Company paid
$5.0 million
for the distribution rights to market Hylaform gel
outside of the United States
and has the option to purchase
the United States distribution rights
in the future...
the Company launched Hylaform gel in
several international markets during fiscal 1997.
*********** Read this **********
The Company is required to pay a
transfer price for Hylaform gel shipments,
as well as
a royalty
on all of the Company's facial injectable product sales
in the countries where Hylaform gel is sold.
--------------------
Collagen 10K - Sept 97
--------------------
Hyaluronan plays an important role
in the skin's hydration and viscoelasticity.
Over time, the hyaluronan content in skin decreases,
contributing to the aging appearance of skin.
Due to its unique cross-linking to
hylan B, Hylaform gel has
a higher water content and greater elastic properties
than other hyaluronan-derived products.
Since hyaluronan is neither tissue-specific
nor species-specific,
Hylaform gel can be used without a skin test.
In addition, Hylaform gel has a
chemical structure that is completely different
from that of bovine collagen and
does not contain any bovine protein.
Hylaform gel allows
same day treatment of
facial wrinkles and scars,
giving patients and doctors
an additional treatment option.
COMPETITION.
---------------------------------
The Company is aware of one
foreign company that is marketing internationally
a collagen-based material for
soft tissue augmentation.
The Company is aware of one company in Europe that
markets a hylauronic acid-based product
called Restylane
that is competitive
with Hylaform gel. |
