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To: Brian Hutcheson who wrote (1799)10/29/1997 11:52:00 AM
From: Ali Khaman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6843
 
Brian -

You are right that AMD has the capacity to make a real dent in the microprocessor market, but there is a timing issue related with that. If your time-to-market, or in this case time-to-volume is such that you lose your competitive window of opportunity, you cannot assume that when you fix your problems that the window will still be open and all will be well. INTC's aggressive price cutting has chewed deeply into AMD's potential profit margin. Remember that these higher profit margins expected were what was used by AMD to forecast their revenues/earnings for the next year and a half. Anyone would be foolish to still be using these numbers.

You also cannot compare DELL's market value with AMD's market value and apply an if-then-so arguement...it doesn't work. Just because DELL is valued on the street at 50 times earnings doesn't mean that AMD will EVER trade at that multiple or even close. Apply reverse logic and say that DELL is overvalued and needs to come down to AMDs level and that DELL is a sure short?

I am not saying either that INTC is the greatest company in the world, but you have to face the facts that it does carry a "marketing advantage".

In AMD's case it is not IF YOU BUILD IT, THEY WILL BUY. 6 months ago that was a tough arguement, but now it is really tough.

PS: I bought my shares at $9 and was sick of the Jerry Sanders failed promises carrying the stock from $9 to $38 to $20 to $40 to $12 to $48 to $30 to $42 to $24...I am sure you get the picture. Timing it would have been great but I do not possess such magic.