Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greenspirit who wrote (315957)	7/21/2009 4:37:22 PM
From: Neeka	Respond to of 793917

You may not need it next winter? El Niño is on John Driscoll/The Times-Standard Posted: 07/15/2009 01:27:10 AM PDT Scientists are watching to see whether a pool of warm water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean known as El Niño will become a major winter weather disrupter or just a minor disturbance. The last major El Niño in the winter of 1997-1998 stirred things up on the North Coast. Heavy rainfall wiped out the tracks of the North Coast Railroad through the Eel River Canyon, brought albacore tuna amazingly close to shore and may have brought a disease that wiped out many of the razor clams on Clam Beach. Then there was 1982-1983, in which storms caused coastal damage of more than $100 million. So far, federal scientists say they can't predict how intense the recently identified El Niño will be. ”It's still a little early to say,” said National Weather Service meteorologist-in-charge Nancy Dean. Dean said that the standard for an El Niño is equatorial Pacific water temperatures being .5 degrees Celsius over normal for three months in a row. Current predictions are that the water could be as much as 2 degrees above normal in the fall. The El Niño of 1997-1998 registered water 2.5 degrees above normal, Dean said. El Niño typically means more rain in the Southwest, and gentler winters in the Pacific Northwest. But El Niño's effects on the North Coast are less certain. Among the effects can be a severe disruption of the ocean food chain. Steven Bograd, a research oceanographer with the National Advertisement Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Southwest Science Center, said that El Niño affects water temperatures along the California coast, but also can affect the circulation of air over the Pacific. That can disrupt upwelling, in which cold nutrient-rich waters are stirred to the surface by northwest winds, critical for marine life. It's even possible for El Niño to form a warm water cap that stifles cold water from reaching the surface, Bograd said. ”It's really the process that drives the ecosystem out there,” Bograd said of upwelling. The anomaly can do weird things along the coast. Humboldt Bay fisherman Ken Bates said that in 1982-1983 he saw herring show up and spawn in the bay in November, months early, and saw most of them leave before the fishing season opened. The following summer, pelagic red crabs more commonly seen in Baja California were observed in large numbers locally. Pacific bonita came in as close as 5 to 10 miles to the North Coast, Bates said. ”I would see them on the way out to catch albacore at 20 miles,” Bates said. Of course, it doesn't take an El Niño event to disrupt the ocean. In 2005, the timing of the upwelling was so far off that biologists believed adult salmon that swam out to sea that year had very poor survival rates, and returned to the Sacramento River in 2008 in such small numbers that fishing season was canceled. And in 1955 and 1964, years that saw the North Coast's greatest floods, there was no El Niño, Dean said. Bograd said that the presence of an El Niño only makes it a bit more certain that there will be a disruption in the weather and the ocean, which makes scientists watch closer for changes. By September, he said, NOAA will have a good idea just how intense this year's El Niño is likely to get. John Driscoll can be reached at 441-0504 or times-standard.com seattletimes.nwsource.com