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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (34890)	7/21/2009 7:13:26 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78758

Hi Paul - I am not sure if NYB is the best bank out there but I do believe it is time to start building back positions in a few financials if they were sold into our most recent financial crash... which I did in spades. NYB is one I have followed and owned for over ten years so I am very familiar with their products (service multi-family apartment/rehab loan portfolio). Loans are made for condo conversion projects in New York a rent controlled city. Typical loan is 70% loan/value with a three - five year pay back period. They have zero to no loan defaults in their primary multi-family loan products. Any defaults they ever had were from loans they acquired from previous mergers several years ago. I have sold some shares at $29 and more recently dumped 1/2 of my shares between $16-$19. I figure buying new shares around $10-$11 is a good entry point as long as we have seen the worst of the banking problems. Banco Bradesco S.A. (BBD) is one I should begin buying again but it might have gotten away as I see it now trades around $15.00/share. My last buy was around $21.00 in June 2008 near it's all time high. I have a very small position so perhaps I will add a few shares on any significant pull back around $10/share. The dividend is small and at 12 PE it is not a steal at current levels. I do like the long term growth potential for Latin America but I believe there will be plenty of time to acquire shares especially if the U.S. stays in a recession longer than expected. Did you notice the recent run XOM has had? I think CVX is a better buy. finance.yahoo.com I wonder if the oils are setting up for another run higher. Still a pretty good run from July 13 2009 to now....just over 9%. A move to 1121 on the S&P represents only a 50% retracement from our high of 1576 S&P October 2007 to our low 667 S&P March 2009. We closed today at 954.48 S&P. If we only get back to our 50% retracement level, there is another 17% run left or about 1,500 Dow points left in some sustained recovery rally. Could we test a Dow 10.400 by July 2010. If so, then the next 90 days may offer our last chance to accumulate our value buys. EKS