To: Real Man who wrote (390805 ) 7/22/2009 5:46:51 PM From: Giordano Bruno Respond to of 436258 Guru Stanley Tells Clients To Short A Growing Rally Last update: 7/22/2009 8:33:48 AM By Ed Welsch Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Morgan Stanley's stock-market strategist predicted Wednesday that the stock market will rise even higher this year - but he called the rally "one to sell into." The chance that the S&P 500 would reach 1100 was increasing as people were gaining more confidence in a V-shaped recovery for the U.S. economy, but that confidence was misplaced, strategist Jason Todd said. "We remain in the tepid recovery camp," Todd wrote in a note to clients. "The key drivers behind improving sentiment - upside to near-term growth estimates and continued positive earnings momentum - may prove more transitory than the market believes." The S&P 500 futures declined more than 8 points from Tuesday's close of 954.58 in recent premarket trading. Todd's forecast comes after seven straight days of market gains, and stands in contrast to two bullish calls made earlier this week by strategists at Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, who raised their year-end price forecasts for the S&P 500 to 1060 and 1050, respectively. The Goldman strategists expect a sustained recovery and rally through the end of the year, while the Credit Suisse analysts expect the market to look like an upward-sloping "W" - rising until the early fourth quarter, suffering a temporary correction, and then rising even higher. Todd said the S&P 500 near 1100 could only be sustained if a sharp V-shaped rebound in economic growth and corporate profits is coming. He said that outcome is unlikely, and that the higher the market got to the 1100 level, the steeper the eventual correction would be. Stocks "could face more than just a technical correction," Todd said, but didn't make a prediction about how far the market could fall. If the market does rise higher, Todd said investors should favor taking profits in global cyclical sectors. He recommended short positions in the food and staples retailing sector, food and beverages and telecoms. On the long side, Todd said sectors weighted with production rather than consumption as the main driver would lead. He recommended long positions in industrial stocks, especially machinery companies, transports, equipment and servicing companies, oil drilling companies, and miners and steel producers. -By Ed Welsch, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2186; edward.welsch@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires July 22, 2009 08:33 ET (12:33 GMT)