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To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (66440)	7/24/2009 4:44:53 PM
From: tyc:>	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78419

>>Black Swans are everywhere Don't black swans deny the validity of the laws of probability ? I do too, But I agree with you when you say you are prepared for the unexpected. I am too.

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (66440)	7/25/2009 9:57:15 PM
From: Gib Bogle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78419

Black Swans are everywhere :O) Most of the swans in NZ are black. I've seen flocks of a hundred or so.

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (66440)	7/26/2009 4:24:43 PM
From: tyc:>	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78419

You said, "Black Swans are everywhere" And I think you clarified that you meant "unexpected events... surprises that had significant consequences " In the stock market that translates to big moves, up or down. As the thread is so quiet, may propose another of my beliefs.... that these events usually result from already trending markets. That's why trend followers benefit from them.... they already aboard. Perhaps the most recent event was the decline in the market prior to March. Just when everyone was looking for a "reversion to the mean" rally, the market took a disastrous dive in the same direction it had been traveling. But for every loser there was a winner, and the winners were those who were following the trend. Nick Gleeson kept buying YEN as it trended down, much to the discomfort of Berings Bank. His Black Swan was not a reversal.