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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dale Baker who wrote (116495)	7/25/2009 10:30:11 AM
From: Bearcatbob	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 542202

"The idea that any special uncertainty is coming along also doesn't hold up to scrutiny compared to the current reality." The current reality is that the deficits are unsustainable - even Obama has said so. Our transparent president just delayed the mid year budget review. The deficit track we are is the clear and current reality. It is a train wreck in process. The pain to end the path to the wreck may be simply politically impossible to inflict. Far more than the auto companies have to restructure in bk. Bob

To: Dale Baker who wrote (116495)	7/25/2009 10:50:50 AM
From: Steve Lokness	Respond to of 542202

Most of the "debate" this year is everyone's personal prediction, colored completely by ideology. I prefer to focus on what is actually observable and measurable in terms of results and draw my conclusions there I'm a little fuzzy as to what "debate" you are referring. We know the right has been driven by ideology. Has the left been too? How about the center? If you are referring to the debate on the economy, isn't any observable and measureable "results" dependant on how we get out from under the debt? The man living in a McMasion with his fancy car is observable as success but like Madoff has demonstrated - it can all be an illusion.

To: Dale Baker who wrote (116495)	7/25/2009 4:17:27 PM
From: Bearcatbob	Respond to of 542202

"As far as energy costs go, oil has traded between $30 and $145 in the last year with NG covering a wide range too. No one knows where they will be a year from now with no other intervening factors. The idea that any special uncertainty is coming along also doesn't hold up to scrutiny compared to the current reality." Dale, oil is only a part of the US energy equation - it has not experienced wide swings in cost. It is primarily a transportation fuel. It is not used for electricity generation and not much for heating (fuel oil heat in the NE is used) and cooling. Electricity is the issue I was primarily referring to. Electricity is largely coal, nat gas, nuclear and some hydro. Wind and solar are something like 1 - 2% of the total. Cap and Trade will largely impact electricity. Every industry uses electricity and some in very large quantities. High tech companies are in particular large users of electricity. Cap and Trade will primarily impact these industries from an energy cost standpoint. Cap and Trade will also hugely impact industries that use furnaces in their operation. Furnaces generate large amounts of CO2 for which capture technology does not exist (commercial technology). Any company that wants to expand will face the issue of how to expand their cap. Hence - they will look elsewhere and send more jobs over seas.