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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TH who wrote (104183)7/30/2009 12:25:27 PM
From: ggersh  Respond to of 110194
 
TH,

My spin is there is $4 tril. on the sidelines, it's there for good reason. smart money doesn't follow the herd. Or maybe it's getting ready to pounce?

As for top ten rallies of all time, I'm disappointed as it's in my top 3. and all those have occurred in the past 10 years.

My quote of the Century remains "We couldn't possibly have seen this coming"

So stay patient, you will be rewarded one way or another!

ggersh



To: TH who wrote (104183)7/30/2009 2:06:40 PM
From: John Vosilla4 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
You must remember interest rates are very low, the curve very steep and small businesses going under at an alarming rate means the big boys still with access to capital pounce and gain market share equates to a net net win for them long term even if the total pie is down 10-25% for the next couple of years compared to the gogo years. Financing once readily available via BAC, JPM and CIT is gone. There is no hope for any major expenditure directly tied to RE coming back for a decade but anything else is fair game as being cyclical and light at the end of the tunnel.. For example Olive Garden/Darden still doing well while many small Italian restaurants in a world of hurt, Barnes and Noble is packed while the independent bookstore goes under, Best Buy the only big electronics retailer left with no competition,ect...



To: TH who wrote (104183)7/30/2009 2:52:05 PM
From: pogohere5 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
Agreed: seen this?

"The End of the End of the Recession"

Zero Hedge, in collaboration with David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist, Gluskin Sheff + Associates, Inc., is pleased to release the attached analysis "The End Of The End Of The Recession"

scribd.com



To: TH who wrote (104183)7/30/2009 5:18:39 PM
From: The Ox1 Recommendation  Respond to of 110194
 
I'd add to JV's comments that "the trend is your friend" until it isn't. Don't fight the tape. If it gets beyond your targets then step aside and wait, imo. Too many traders get caught by anticipating a trend change before it actually happens. This also helps fuel the excesses near the end of the run (in both directions) as those who choose to fight the tape usually end up having to get out at the wrong time.

jmo

TO