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To: TH who wrote (104189)7/30/2009 5:14:48 PM
From: pogohere2 Recommendations  Respond to of 110194
 
I also find this by Janszen very interesting, as he is trying to make the case for a deflation followed by hyperinflation in the US:

Does USA 2009 = Argentina 2001? Part I: Falling economy reaches terminal velocity

itulip.com

I have yet to see how the necessary velocity and multipliers that seem always to accompany inflation come into play to produce a hyperinflation in the US, similar to what happened in Argentina. Maybe Janszen will detail that in Part 2.



To: TH who wrote (104189)7/30/2009 6:22:47 PM
From: Chispas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
"Hitting A Wall By Mid-2010' .

John Serrapere, July 30, 2009, 1:45 pm EDT

..............................................................................................................................................................

...Lurking behind our ebbing and waning of deflation fears lies a deep-seeded knowing that we are short incomes and long many debts......

finance.yahoo.com



To: TH who wrote (104189)7/30/2009 11:35:32 PM
From: dave9  Respond to of 110194
 
Hows Sales TH? 22,782 automotive were purchased in the last 4 days.

freep.com

- - - - - - - - - - -

Cash-for-clunkers program may be suspended

By Justin Hyde • Free Press Washington Staff • July 30, 2009

Updated at 9:41 p.m.

WASHINGTON — Four days after it launched, the popular cash-for-clunkers program has burned through its $950-million budget, sending the Obama administration scrambling to find additional money tonight and avoid a shutdown of the program.
Advertisement

Administration officials told Congress this evening that the plan would be suspended, triggering confusion and anger among thousands of dealers and car buyers across the country. Many dealers rushed to submit paperwork on pending trades, amid TV ads from automakers touting the program.

But a White House official denied late today that the program was suspended, and said all valid deals would be honored. Officials at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue were seeking ways to send additional money to the program; the U.S. House was set to adjourn Friday for a month-long break.

Administration officials wouldn’t say what the government would do if no money could be found Friday. A spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said lawmakers "will be working with the congressional sponsors and the Administration to quickly review the results of the initiative."

The calls to suspend the plan, first reported by the Free Press, came after auto dealers warned the government that it was in danger of losing count of how many trades had been made. Since the program was to run as long as there was money left in the $950-million pool, dealers have been concerned the fund could run dry before they were reimbursed for all their deals — which requires them to junk the clunker.

The plan offering owners of old cars and trucks $3,500 or $4,500 toward a new, more-efficient vehicle has proven wildly popular, with 22,782 trades certified by federal officials since Monday. But the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration told dealers Wednesday that a vast majority of transactions submitted were being rejected for incomplete or illegible paperwork.

A survey of 2,000 dealers by the National Automobile Dealers Association, the results of which were obtained by the Free Press, found about 25,000 deals not yet approved by NHTSA, or about 13 trades per store. With 23,005 dealers asking to be part of the program, auto dealers may have already arranged the sale of more than the 250,000 vehicles that federal officials expected the plan to generate.
(2 of 2)

Bill Golling, owner of Golling Chrysler-Jeep-Dodge in Bloomfield Hills, said his dealership had sold 80 vehicles already under the program. “It’s working so well, I’ve got people mad at me because I can’t take care of them,” he said.

NHTSA spokesman Rae Tyson said earlier today that the government had been concerned about how many deals had been made.

“We need to make sure that there’s enough money in the system to cover the transactions that have already occurred," he said. "We certainly don’t want dealers to get stuck.”

The plan was officially launched Monday, but Congress allowed dealers to start taking trades after July 1. NHTSA requires dealers to get several pieces of information from buyers, including proof of insurance and registration, and disable clunkers by destroying its engine before applying for reimbursement.

Joe Serra, owner of the 21-dealership Serra Automotive Group in Grand Blanc, said the system for submitting deals simply didn’t work.

“Their capacity to accept the applications is not adequate,” Serra said. “Dealers are spending all day trying to submit the applications. … I have not spoken to one dealer that has received approval, and or has been funded, for even a single transaction.”

Ken Czubay, Ford Motor Co.’s vice president of U.S. sales and marketing, said many Ford dealers are worried that they will be out thousands of dollars per car if they sell a vehicle to the consumer, disable the engine, and find out later the funding has been exhausted.

“I think it was a well-intended program … and frankly the program at this very early stage has to be viewed as a huge success,” Czubay said. “We are going to be working with the government to say, are we accomplishing all the things we want?”

Michigan lawmakers were set to meet Friday morning to map a strategy for pushing more money to the program.

“In just four days, we have done more to stimulate the economy with ‘Cash for Clunkers’ than any government program since the downturn began last fall," said Rep. Fred Upton, R-St. Joseph.

Several Michigan lawmakers had already vowed to press for more money for the program, which had originally been set for $4 billion. But Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., has said she would block any additional money unless the program was changed to boost the gains in fuel economy between old and new models.

Federal officials also said today that the government would honor any deal agreed to before changes made in a federal database of mileage figures last Friday.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency updated its data on 30,000 old models, disqualifying 76 models that had previously met the program’s standards of getting no more than 18 m.p.g.



To: TH who wrote (104189)7/31/2009 3:24:24 AM
From: Skeeter Bug1 Recommendation  Respond to of 110194
 
TH, while my view of the *reality* is nearly exactly the same as yours - painful depression/deflation followed by massive inflation as printed dollars pay for government services...

i recommend that you listen to investor's edge with gary kaltbaum.

businesstalkradio.net

he follows william o'neil's investing philosophy and he's short term bullish based on the charts. he knows what is going on. he even recommended the GS article about them blowing bubbles. he reports how obama's spending is bad and inflation will eventually come down the road. he sees the fraud in the markets and the investment bankers. he thinks BofA's CEO and Paulson ought to have criminal charges filed against them.

yet, he's still bullish. while i disagree with him on what *should* happen, he's been right and i've been wrong (so far) on what the market expects to happen - and that's where the money is made, so maybe his experience tells him something - not about reality (i think i'm right and we go much lower), but about the shorter term market perceptions.

the market perceives, albeit incorrectly, that a recovery is coming. this perception will stick until something changes it.

that might not be for a while. if everyone thinks GDP grows 2% next year, it doesn't matter that it might actually contract 5%.

until it does.

so be careful. you can always sell short again - possibly even at a higher price. or maybe at a similar price in 2 months.

set a hard stop and have the discipline to keep it. keep losses small and wins big.

good luck - we need it in this manipulated, bubble market.