Poll: Dissatisfaction growing with Obama, Democrats
McClatchy Washington Bureau
Posted on Wed, Jul. 29, 2009
Steven Thomma | McClatchy Newspapers
last updated: July 30, 2009 06:23:59 AM
mcclatchydc.com
WASHINGTON — According to a bipartisan poll released Wednesday, President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party may be putting themselves in political jeopardy with their expensive and ambitious agenda, which has yet to show benefits for the country.
"There are warning signs for Democrats heading into 2010," Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said. "Despite trusting and supporting the Democratic agenda, majorities think the administration is spending too much and doing too many things."
Republican pollster Ed Goeas, who conducted the Battleground Poll with Lake for George Washington University, said it showed signs of a shifting landscape that could help Republicans start rebounding from back-to-back election losses in 2006 and 2008, when they lost control of Congress and the White House.
"It's a lot more fun on the way up than it is on the way down, and we're already starting to see signs of that," Goeas said. "The demise of the Republican Party has been overanalyzed and overestimated."
The bipartisan Battleground Poll, which surveyed 1,007 registered likely voters nationwide July 19-23, has an error margin of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Overall, Obama and the Democrats still have popular support.
The survey found that 53 percent of likely voters approve of the way that Obama is doing his job. It also found that the president and congressional Democrats had an advantage over Republicans on such issues and characteristics as health care, energy independence, honesty and middle class values.
"Obama continues to be very strong as a personal brand. Voters still like him," Lake said at a breakfast with reporters.
Yet he's facing public skepticism about his agenda, and potential problems with the key voting bloc of independents.
A solid majority of 61 percent, for example, said that Obama was spending too much money. A similar majority of 63 percent said he was trying to do too many things at once.
Skepticism was rampant among Republicans but also evident among independents.
Among independents, the poll found Obama's job approval dropping to 42 percent and his disapproval rising to 50 percent. Of that 50 percent who disapprove, the vast majority disapprove strongly, the poll found.
Independents also were much more likely than Democrats to say that Obama is spending too much money — 76 percent of independents said that — and is trying to do too much — 68 percent of independents.
Independents supported having government power divided between the major political parties by 53 percent to 29 percent, rivaling Republicans and potentially signaling dissatisfaction with Democratic control of the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Looking ahead to 2010 — when the entire 435-member House and one-third of the Senate are up for election — Goeas and Lake said that Republicans as of now had more intensity, a passion that could turn into an edge in getting their voters to turn out.
The poll found 75 percent of Republicans saying that they definitely will vote, a clear edge over the 66 percent of Democrats and 65 percent of independents who say they will.
"Part of what has to be troubling to Democrats is the issue of turnout," Lake said. "Republicans, while generally more divided on issues and perceptions, are more enthusiastic about the election than Democrats and are more likely to vote."
Goeas noted two other challenges for the Democrats: Voting by young people, a big source of votes for Democrats in 2008, usually drops by 5 percentage points in a midterm election, and voting by older voters, historically more Republican, rises by the same amount.
Lake, the Democratic pollster, said that there was plenty of time for the Democrats to turn things around. While only one in three voters said that the $787 billion economic-stimulus plan was working, 58 percent said it was "on track" and that it should be given a year to work.
Lake also said that 57 percent of voters thought that former President George W. Bush had made today's economic woes worse.
"The key is to prepare for a blame election," she said. "It's very important to draw the contrast between what we've tried to do and how the Republicans have tried to hold on to the failed Bush policies."
Goeas said there was an "expiration date" on blaming Bush. "The Bush thing will begin to fade more and more and more," he said. "Especially if Republicans don't try to defend Bush and just move into the future."
ON THE WEB
More on the poll
gwu.edu
WASHINGTON - The latest edition of The George Washington University Battleground Poll finds a majority of voters (51%) believing that the country is on the wrong track. Their top areas of concern are the economy and jobs, health care costs, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the federal budget deficit.
Looking ahead to the 2010 Congressional Elections, the Democratic Party enjoys a three point advantage (43%-40%) on the Congressional generic ballot. However, voters are closely divided on their preference for a divided government (41%) or for a unified government (39%). In addition, a majority (57%) of voters disapprove of the job performance of Congress.
In contrast, President Obama has a job approval rating of 53%, a personal approval rating of 72%, and a 61% favorable rating on name identification.
On other name identification scores, Republicans in Congress (37% favorable/49% unfavorable) trail the Democrats in Congress (45% favorable/44% unfavorable) though Nancy Pelosi (32% favorable/51% unfavorable) and Harry Reid (15% favorable/31% unfavorable) are well below the scores for Democrats in Congress overall. Among other figures tested, Joe Biden is ten points net positive (48% favorable/38% unfavorable) while Sarah Palin is five points net negative (42% favorable/47% unfavorable).
A split sample series of questions asked the public to rate how well the Republicans in Congress and President Obama were handling a variety of policy issues. President Obama has an advantage on being honest and trustworthy (+30), promoting energy independence (+26), reforming health care (+22), turning the economy around (+20), defending middle class values (+18), and sharing your values (+4). Republicans in Congress enjoy an advantage over President Obama on controlling wasteful spending (+2), promoting a strong national defense (+11), and holding down taxes (+12).
Another split sample series of questions asked the public to rate how well the two parties in Congress were handling a variety of policy issues. Republicans in Congress have an advantage on holding down taxes (+24), promoting a strong national defense (+20), and controlling wasteful spending (+8). Democrats in Congress have an advantage on reforming health care (+21), promoting energy independence (+16), turning the economy around (+14), defending middle class values (+13), being honest and trustworthy (+11), and on sharing your values (+2).
On a series of agree/disagree statements, one can see how fluid the potential themes for the 2010 election are. On a split sample question, a majority of voters (64% agree/34% disagree) that the Obama administration is trying to pursue too many policy initiatives too quickly and a majority (61% agree/34% disagree) that the Obama administration is spending too much money on too many major policy initiatives. However, on another split sample question, a majority of voters (53% agree/41% disagree) that Republicans in Congress are blocking change and support Bush policies while dividing (48% agree/47% disagree) on an assertion that the GOP in Congress is blocking change and not proposing solutions.
On the economy, 63% of voters rate the economy as approaching recession (5%), recession (45%), or depression (13%). In addition, 60% of voters indicate that they personally or someone they know has been unemployed in the last 12 months. However, 48% of voters rate their personal economic situation as excellent (7%) or good (41%).
On some/other question about the economy, a majority (57%) of voters select that Obama and the Congress should be given a year to have their solutions really make a difference while another 33% of voters believe that enough time has passed to expect the solutions promised with the stimulus package.
Christopher Arterton, dean of the Graduate School of Political Management, notes, "For years, the GW-Battleground Poll has provided a highly accurate measurement of American public opinion in the context of the current political landscape. After the historic 2008 presidential race, 2009 is shaping up to be a pivotal year in political support for Republicans and Democrats alike. All the more important as we head into the 2010 Congressional Elections."
Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners, states, "Voters are more optimistic about the direction of the country under Obama, but they are very worried about the economy. The President and Vice President are positive and among the most popular figures in Washington. Voters trust Obama and the Democrats on the issues that matter most - the economy, jobs, and health care. Yet while voters recognize the Administration and Congress deserve more time for their solutions to take hold, they are increasingly tax-sensitive and anxious about rising deficits. As the Democrats know, our future depends on focusing on a couple of initiatives and delivering results."
Ed Goeas, president and CEO of The Tarrance Group, says, "As Republicans look ahead to the 2010 elections, this data offers some real encouragement for the party. Voters are anxious about the direction the country is taking. On key measures, both voter intensity and the views of key voting groups like seniors and independents are moving in favor of Republicans."
This bipartisan GW-Battleground 2008 Poll surveyed 1,007 registered likely voters nationwide July 19-23, 2009, and yields a margin of error of + 3.1%. First conducted in 1991, this poll has accurately portrayed the political climate through four presidential and three mid-term election cycles. This series of scientific surveys is unique to the industry in that it offers the distinct perspectives of two top pollsters from different sides of the aisle.
The George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management is the sponsor of the poll. The university's public affairs, public policy and international affairs programs (undergraduate and graduate) frequently are ranked highly in leading publications, including recognition as the "Most Politically Active" university in the 2010 Princeton Review. The George Washington University also is one of the nation's best schools in fostering social responsibility and public service, according to the Princeton Review and Washington Monthly, which both included the university among its top-rated schools for community service in recent surveys.
For additional information please see the Democratic Strategic Analysis and GW-Battleground Poll charts.
Celinda Lake, and Ed Goeas are available for comment. For Lake, please contact Daniel Gotoff at Lake Research Partners, 202-776-9066. For Goeas, please contact Brian Nienaber at The Tarrance Group, 703-684-6688. This data also is available online at www.tarrance.com, www.lakeresearch.com or gwu.edu.
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