To: Maurice Winn who wrote (52942 ) 7/31/2009 5:30:23 PM From: Elroy Jetson Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 218068 US to lead west out of recession, OECD predicts . Thinktank's Jorgen Elmeskov said he saw only a slight threat of deflation apart from in Japan Kathryn Hopkins guardian.co.uk -- Thursday 13 November 2008guardian.co.uk While output is expected to contract next year, the US economy is predicted to lead the way towards recovery. The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said that gross domestic product for its 30 member countries would drop by 0.3% in 2009. It forecasted that the US economy would contract next year by 0.9%, Japan's by 0.1% and the eurozone by 0.5%. Shortly before the OECD announcement, Germany said its GDP fell by 0.5% in the third quarter of the year, taking the eurozone's largest economy into recession for the first time in five years. "The OECD area economy appears to have entered recession," said Jorgen Elmeskov, director of the policy studies branch and the OECD's economics department. He said that while the picture was uncertain, "projections point to a protracted downturn" with recovery not likely before the second half of next year, with the US leading the way out of recession. The organisation said that the average unemployment rate in the OECD area, estimated at 5.9% this year, is expected to climb to 6.9% next year and reach 7.2% in 2010. It added that inflation should continue to ease as economic slowdown puts downward pressure on prices and commodity prices maintain their recent lower levels. Elmeskov said he saw only a slight threat of deflation apart from in Japan, where it was forecast to set in next year. "I would not see that (deflation) as something that has a high probability but it's one of these outcomes on the lower end of the probability distribution," he added. The OECD joined calls for fiscal stimulus to support lower interest rates to limit the recession. "The need is probably larger in the countries where the scope for monetary easing is limited and where the automatic stabilisers are relatively weak and that would be the US and Japan," Elmeskov said. "The need is perhaps less in the eurozone because there's still some ammunition left in monetary policy," he added. .