To: MoneyPenny who wrote (122961 ) 8/2/2009 10:43:29 PM From: ChanceIs Respond to of 206094 Pemex Output Goal ‘Uphill Battle,’ Forces Borrowing (Update3) Share | Email | Print | A A A By Andres R. Martinez July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, Latin America’s largest oil company, is likely to miss its 2009 output goal even after lowering its production forecast, forcing the company to seek other sources of financing to pay for its largest-ever capital spending plan. Pemex, which hasn’t increased production in 3 years, needs to raise output by at least 1.6 percent in the final six months of 2009 to reach a goal of 2.65 million barrels a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Mexico City-based Pemex lowered its forecast yesterday on an earnings conference call. Last year, Pemex’s output fell at the fastest rate since World War II, costing it more than $20 billion in potential sales amid record crude prices. Pemex cut its forecast three times last year as its then-largest field, Cantarell, dropped more than twice as fast as government predictions. “It is an uphill battle to surpass the natural decline in Cantarell,” Gianna Bern, president of Brookshire Advisory and Research Inc., said in an interview yesterday from Flossmoor, Illinois. “Given bureaucratic delays, it could impede efforts to increase production. It is not very likely.” Output has fallen since July 2006 for 35 consecutive months as Cantarell, once the world’s third-largest field, loses pressure and becomes increasingly difficult and expensive to exploit. Pemex pumped 2.63 million barrels a day in the first six months of 2009. The Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest field, followed by the Burgan deposit in Kuwait. Bank Loans, Bonds Pemex says it will seek $10 billion in bank loans and bonds this year to finance its $19.5 billion capital budget. The company plans to spend $19.9 billion annually from 2010 through 2012. Oil producers including ConocoPhillips, the third- largest U.S. oil company, slashed their budgets amid plunging energy prices because of the recession. ConocoPhillips cut its capital budget 37 percent to $12.5 billion this year. Pemex has also asked Mexico’s Finance Ministry for 30 billion pesos ($2.27 billion) to cover losses in the first quarter as the peso plunged 23 percent in the six months ending March 31. Financing costs for Pemex have dropped as much as 65 percent since March relative to the Mexican government and may continue to fall as oil prices recover, according to Citigroup Inc. and RBC Capital Markets Corp. The company has sold about $4 billion in notes this year in the U.S., London and Mexico. Record Prices Crude oil for September delivery rose $2.47, or 3.7 percent, to $69.41 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up about 55 percent this year and have dropped 52 percent from a record $147.27 on July 11, 2008. This year will be the first time Pemex raises total debt levels since 2006. Total debt as of June 30 was $47 billion. The company has also agreed to borrow as much $900 million from the U.S. Export-Import Bank this year. Mexico’s Energy Ministry has set a goal of having production rebound to 3 million to 3.1 million barrels a day by the end of President Felipe Calderon’s term in 2012. The estimate is based on the incorporation of new fields and mature fields like Ku-Maloob-Zaap reaching their peaks. This year, Pemex expects its CHicontepec field to almost double to 60,000 barrels a day by December. Output from the Ku-Maloob-Zaap field averaged 795,000 barrels a day in the first half of 2009, Pemex said on July 24. The offshore field surpassed Cantarell in January to become Mexico’s largest field. Production dropped 41 percent to 604,498 barrels a day at Cantarell in June, Mexico’s Energy Ministry said.