To: TobagoJack who wrote (53022 ) 8/2/2009 8:38:03 AM From: carranza2 1 Recommendation Respond to of 218201 contraryinvestor.com Thoughtful, long. The takeaway:In short, on a twelve month moving average basis, the foreign community has become a net seller of US government agency paper. This is a first in historical experience, despite the fact that the agencies are now official members of the government witness protection program (and just think, their names don’t even end in vowels). In terms of US corporate debt, foreign appetite has vanished. The twelve-month moving average of purchases of US corporate debt by the foreign sector went into negative territory as of May. For years we have argued that to influence change, the foreign community did not need to dump their US financial assets, they merely needed to stop buying. We’re there in terms of agency and corporate paper. Finally, foreign buying of US equities has ticked up a bit in recent months, but of course it’s following the rhythm and direction of US and global equity markets on a short-term basis. ******* In other words, the foreign community has been “funding” the US trade gap. But the numbers clearly tell us that as of now, that is no more. In addition to funding the massive economic and banking sector/financial sector stimulus/bailout of the moment, funding the trade deficit absent foreign flows is also now an issue for the US. So there you have it. A little self-indulgent looking out the window and pondering the current message of a generational earthquake that is now upon us. What does all of this mean to our investing activities ahead? First, these comments are very much about the development of long-term trends as opposed to suggesting outcomes or pointing to conclusions about the short term. As we stated, we need to watch global flows of capital in that they will influence relative global currency values and country specific domestic interest rates over time, in addition to the ability of specific countries and regions to grow their own economies in terms of rate of change.