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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chispas who wrote (104284)	8/5/2009 10:20:22 PM
From: Chispas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

NBR - "The Recession Continues To Wreck The Workforce" - 8-5-09 ................................................................................................................................................................... SUSIE GHARIB: The big question about the economic recovery is when will American businesses start hiring again? More than 6.5 million people have lost jobs since the recession began. On Friday, the Labor Department reports on unemployment for July. And today payroll processor ADP said the nation's businesses cut 371,000 jobs last month, the 18th straight month of declines. As Darren Gersh reports, it's going to take a lot longer than 18 months to get things back to normal. DARREN GERSH, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The great recession has torn through the American workforce at an alarming rate, 6.5 million jobs lost so far. But economist Heidi Shierholz says the pain goes even deeper. HEIDI SHIERHOLZ, ECONOMIST, ECONOMIC POLICY INSTITUTE: Over those 18 months of the recession, we should have added 2.3 million jobs to keep up with population growth. So when you sum those two together, 2.3 million we should have added, plus the 6.5 million we lost, we're 8.8 million jobs in the hole. GERSH: And we are still digging. By the end of the year, Shierholz figures the economy will be short 10 million jobs and the United States won't see robust job growth until the end of next year. SHIERHOLZ: And that's when people in the real economy will start to feel like, OK, we've entered recovery. GERSH: So when will we recover the jobs we've lost? Just do the math. The private ADP forecast shows the U.S. economy lost 371,000 jobs last month. To keep up with population growth, economists figure the U.S. needs to create 130,000 jobs a month. In a recovery, the U.S. should create something like 300,000 to 400,000 a month, enough to begin reducing unemployment significantly. That means the country won't recover the jobs lost to this recession until somewhere around the year 2014 at the earliest. Economist Dean Baker says it won't be easy to replace the jobs lost because the recession has slammed housing and auto manufacturing, two sectors that usually drive the recovery in hiring. DEAN BAKER, CO-DIRECTOR, CTR. FOR ECONOMIC AND POLICY RESEARCH: In the case of residential construction, we have enormous over capacity. It's very difficult to imagine any significant increase in employment in that sector for years to come. In the case of autos, we can see increased demand. We probably will see increased demand, but a lot of that demand is going to be for foreign cars right now. GERSH: Of course, the economy will eventually create enough jobs to make up for those lost in the great recession. But those jobs may be in different industries and many of the specific jobs that went away may never come back. Darren Gersh, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Washington. ......................................................................................................................................................... pbs.org