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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ayn rand who wrote (89484)8/7/2009 6:57:37 AM
From: Real Man  Respond to of 94695
 
Yeah, I have read him, but he has been
quite wrong, and for quite an extended
period of time in the past.

The bulls are cautious here, while all
bears are trying to short the highs.
In the meantime, stocks are not down much
at all, considering the enormous advance since
March and July lows and the overbought condition.
That concerns me.

The financials are in an upside crash, with very bullish charts,
projecting XLF = 21.5. I am running that target with October
FAS calls, but risking 1/2 of the profit, so that position is free.
I had quite a multibagger on that already in the past few weeks,
so I can lose some if the trade does not pan out as expected.

As I mentioned before on Don's thread, FAS calls offered extremely
good risk/reward for the bullish trade because of very low IV.
They still do.



To: ayn rand who wrote (89484)8/7/2009 7:18:51 AM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
The FAS trade is long in the tooth and overbot, so don't jump
on it, not with front month. Nevertheless, on a longer time scale
the XLF has lots of room for a significant advance. In a bull
market the bears jump on overbot, only to be
blown apart later on. I am just staying with the
trend, with much lower risk.