Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (53251)	8/7/2009 3:50:20 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218847

Brazil's growing middle class powers rebound it's not the country's vaunted soybean, meat and iron ore exports that are powering the turnaround of the world's ninth-largest economy. Brazil's growing middle class powers rebound By TYLER BRIDGES miamiherald.com RIO DE JANEIRO -- Brazil is beginning to pull out of an economic dive triggered by the global financial crisis, but it's not the country's vaunted soybean, meat and iron ore exports that are powering the turnaround of the world's ninth-largest economy. Instead, more than 20 million Brazilians who have joined the consumer economy in recent years and now have money to spend are playing a key role in Brazil's recovery. "Investments and exports are down, but consumer spending is still growing, although slower than before," said Juan Pablo Fuentes, who tracks Latin American economies at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pa. "People are still willing to buy durable goods like electronics and cars. It shows optimism, which is important." Brazilians who formerly eked out a living are leading the way. From 2001 to 2007, the poorest 10 percent of the population enjoyed a 49 percent increase in real income, said Brazilian economist Marcelo Neri, or what he called "Chinese-like growth." Some 27.8 million Brazilians - out of a population of nearly 200 million - joined the consumer economy from October 2003 to October 2008, said Neri, who is based at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Rio. "They could now buy durable goods like computers, maybe even a car, and get access to credit," Neri said. Spurred in part by a federal sales tax break, Brazil's auto industry sold more cars in a single month in June than ever - 300,157. This topped the previous monthly record in July 2008 by 12,047 vehicles. Neri credited the expansion of the consumer class to an activist government that has increased direct payments to the poor and raised the minimum wage, which is also indexed to benefit retired public workers. After growing for five years, however, Brazil's economy contracted by 1.8 percent during the first quarter, and Neri estimated the tough economic times have caused about 2.8 million Brazilians to fall back into poverty. "It's not a big loss," Neri said, amounting to about only 10 percent of those who joined the consumer society during the boom years. "The average Brazilian today still has money in his pocket." Moody's Economy.com is projecting Brazil's economy to grow by 0.5 percent in 2009 thanks to a second-half rebound that's expected to offset a difficult first six months. The firm expects Brazil's economy to grow by 4.2 percent in 2010 and lead Latin America out of recession. "The worst is over," said Paulo Levy, an economist at the Rio-based Institute for Applied Research, adding Brazil is in better shape to weather the global economic mess than it was a decade ago. Successive governments have tamed inflation, boosted foreign currency reserves, cut foreign debt, turned budget deficits into surpluses and "sent signals to investors that they could rely on Brazil," Levy said. Tapping into the country's currency reserves has permitted the government to boost spending on new roads and ports and direct more money to the poor. Still, even a fortified Brazil was no match for the economic disaster that hit in October when bank loans disappeared and demand for its export products withered. Investors pulled back, with the electronics, construction and aircraft manufacturing sectors taking a beating. Foreign investment dropped by 20 percent during the first five months of 2009, and imports plummeted by 28.9 percent during the first six months of 2009, compared with the first six months of 2008. Exports dropped by 22.2 percent. The only bright spot for Brazil's trade: China's continuing thirst for Brazilian soybeans, iron ore and oil. China accounted for 8.2 percent of Brazil's exports in the first six months of 2008 but 14.9 percent in 2009 - becoming a bigger market than the U.S. "I don't know where we'd be without China," said Jose Augusto de Castro, a vice president of the Rio-based Brazilian Foreign Trade Association.

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (53251)	8/7/2009 11:22:03 PM
From: 8bits	Respond to of 218847

Stephen Roach was predicting a collapse of China for much of the first 3 years of this decade, one of his earlier articles: parapundit.com I am sure TJ is familiar with Roaches' past predictions.

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (53251)	8/10/2009 2:38:58 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218847

am on way back to freedom kowloon and money rock hong kong conversations with many that i respect have yielded the conclusion that one must be bullish of china however one may be bearish about elsewhere the concensus seems to be that 50% of the 7.9% gdp growth may or may not be fluff, but the fluff will be powered away by genuine and multi-decade infrastructure and domestic demand projects that will sooner rather than later evolve into good solid sustainable growth, and that the officialdom is doing exactly right businessmen are bullish even laid of iso9000 certifiers now turned taxi drivers are bullish and so we should be bullish below is an e-mail conversation which i capped off player 1 BEIJING – China's top economic official cautioned Sunday that the country still faced economic problems and assured jittery investors that easy credit policies aimed at kick-starting a recovery would continue. "We still face many difficulties and challenges and there is uncertainty over the prospect of the international economy," Wen Jiabao said during a recent visit to eastern Jiangsu province, according to remarks posted Sunday on the central government's Web site. He said the economy continues to be challenged by plunging demand for Chinese exports and challenges in boosting domestic demand. Wen said Beijing will stick to its "relatively relaxed monetary policy" and a "proactive fiscal policy" — a reference to the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus for the world's third-largest economy. seems to me, at least through the fall time period, chances of another crash are growing rather more dim, and short positions equal a nightmare worse than we've seen in the past, for short people. we'll really get the seal of approval on that, when congress raises timmy's ceiling to the 12 trillion plus level. if that isn't a bubble vote, nothing is. just too much intervention out there, and the "bull" Boyzzz know it. please correct me if i am way off here. as to fricken gold.................... why should it not fly anymore than it flew with everything else after the Y2K bubble got underway, as one memorable example. a HUGE move, as this one should be. player 2 agree completely player tj got some interesting insight on china gdp growth over past few days bullish for assets, bad for cash player 1 so... do you agree, this rally continues? player tj rally continues back to the highs come hell or high water for the greater good until the truly awful makes ultimately inescapable appearance getmoregold