To: koan who wrote (57191 ) 8/7/2009 1:58:09 PM From: jlallen Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 59480 In fact....it does not appear that "birthers" are having any deleterious effects.... Morning Fix: Danger! Danger! Democrats!voices.washingtonpost.com Two new independent polls show Republicans with comfortable leads in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, which, if they hold, could cause the White House a major political headache in November. In New Jersey, former U.S. attorney Chris Christie (R) led Gov. Jon Corzine (D) 48 percent to 40 percent while in Virginia former state attorney general Bob McDonnell (R) held a 51 percent to 43 percent edge over state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D). Both surveys were conducted for the liberal Daily Kos blog by Research 2000 and showed the Republican candidates extending their leads from similar polls conducted earlier this summer. "If Democrats lose not only will people call into question the Democratic party brand but also the brand of Barack Obama," said Penny Lee, the former executive director of the Democratic Governors Association. Phil Musser, a former executive director of the Republican Governors Association, predicted a "celebration from coast to coast" if the GOP is able to pick up both governorships, which are currently controlled by Democrats. "It would mean the GOP's long national political nightmare is likely over." Musser's sentiment is evidence of just how much weight Republicans are putting on these two races, regarding them as early referendums on President Obama and the economic policies he has put into place since coming into office. "I sincerely believe these are two must-wins for the Democrats," asserted RGA executive director Nick Ayers. "Obama's effectiveness has been seriously called into question over his lack of an ability to get anything done with overwhelming majorities in House and Senate." Democrats, not surprisingly, are working to downplay the significance of the two elections -- noting, rightly, that much of Corzine's vulnerability is self-inflicted and that Virginia has a history of handing its governorship to the party out of the White House. Emily DeRose, communications director at the Democratic Governors Association, insisted that it is actually Republicans who have the most to lose this fall. "For them, the stakes if they lose are much higher because they have defined both of the states as must wins for themselves," she said. Fred Yang, a prominent Democratic pollster, argued that it is too early to make predictions about what might happen in the fall but added that if Republicans won in New Jersey and Virginia "the real message it should send is that incumbents (of both parties) in 2010 will face a very unsettled and dissatisfied electorate." Regardless of whether or not it would be fair to lay Democratic defeats in New Jersey and Virginia at the feet of the White House, it is a near certainty that the press coverage would quickly adopt that storyline. After all, Obama has already been to New Jersey -- last month -- and Virginia -- last night -- to campaign with Corzine and Deeds, respectively, and is now being featured in an ad for Corzine. And, ever since the 1993 victories of Christine Todd Whitman (R-N.J.) and George Allen (R-Va.), which presaged the 1994 Republican wave election, amateur political analysts have been touting the predictive power of off-year elections. "We are the underdogs in both races," said one senior White House adviser granted anonymity to speak candidly. "Given the economy, party in power, etc., we should lose both." If that scenario comes to pass, expect Republicans to immediately spin it as a sign that Americans are rejecting the Obama agenda. How the White House responds -- rhetorically and politically -- could help make or break Democratic fortunes in next year's midterms.