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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (44965)	8/9/2009 1:25:18 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95546

Amateur Investors Weekend Stock Market Analysis (8/8/09) amateur-investor.net As I mentioned last weekend the US Dollar (USD) and the stock market have exhibited an inverse relationship over the past several years such that when the USD has been in a downtrend the stock market has rallied and vice versa. The chart below compares the USD to the S&P 500. Notice the USD peaked in 2001 and then remained in a downtrend through 2007 (points A to B) which was followed by a 5 year rally in the S&P 500 (points C to D). Then the USD bottomed in early 2008 and rallied strongly through early 2009 (points B to E) as the S&P 500 sold off (points D to F). This has been followed by more weakness in the USD (points E to G) which has led to another rally in the S&P 500 (points F to H). If this inverse relationship continues over the next several months then either the USD will continue to fall and eventually retest the early 2008 lows which will lead to more upside in the stock market through the end of the year or the USD will rally which will eventually have a negative affect on the stock market in the longer term. Currently the S&P 500 has rallied back to its 38.2% Retracement Level calculated from the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low and has gained over 50% in a very short period of time. If the USD continues to fall through the rest of the year then I expect the S&P 500 will eventually rally up to its 50% Retracement Level near 1120 which also coincides with the longer term downward trend line (black line). Keep in mind I don't expect a straight move up to the 1120 level from where we are at now as we may see at least one pullback from the late Summer into the Fall. Finally hear are a few things to keep in mind with this latest rally as talked about by Bob Farrell who was the chief market strategist for Merrill Lynch from 1967-1992. 1) Markets tend to return to the mean over time. 2) Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction. 3) There are no new eras — excesses are never permanent. 4) Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways. 5) The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom. 6) Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve. 7) Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue chip names. 8) Bear markets have three stages — sharp down — reflexive rebound — then a drawn-out fundamental downtrend. 9) When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen. 10) Bull markets are more fun than bear markets. Of all of these I believe #8 is something we all need to be aware of in the longer term. 8) Bear Markets have three Stages: A: Sharp Down B: followed by Reflexive Rebound C: then a Drawn-out Fundamental Downtrend In 2008 our ETF Strategies worked the best with which had a return of +33% versus the S&P 500 which was down -38.5% for the year. Meanwhile our 401K Strategy finished up +17.3% for the year. Signup for a "Free 4 Week Trial Membership" or save up to 50% on a Premium Membership and you will have access to these Investment Products which include the following: 1. "ETF Daily Buy and Short Signals" which can be used to trade the DIA's, QQQQ's, SPY's and OIH's. Our ETF Strategy returned 33% in 2008. 2. "401K/Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) Timing Service" which can be used to help improve your return in your 401k/TSP Account which was up +17.3% in 2008. 3. The "End of Month Strategy" finished up +36.3% in 2008. This Strategy focuses on the typical End of Month markup by the Institutional Money. 4. "Stocks to Buy List" which can be used with either our Short Term Strategy or Long Term Strategy. In 2008 our Long Term Strategy finished even for the year versus the S&P 500 which was down -38.5%.