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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35061)	8/9/2009 10:31:52 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78749

The SPY earning estimates for Y2009 are about 50$. At a current value of 1000 points that is a 20x PE. this is not cheap Y2010 estimates are anyones guess - the highest I have seen is 75$ which implies a strong turn of the economy. I think a value of 60$/SPY500 is more realistic. Based on that we have 16.7PE - not cheap either but also not terrible expensive. Given the uncertainties with respect to the economy and the loss of investors confidence (which could lead to rapid selloffs, imo) I consider the market as a whole somewhat overvalued.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (35061)	8/12/2009 3:17:08 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78749

Hi Paul - Followed you on your sells of OXY. Closed out my position. Been selling this one down over the years and put the proceeds into Siemens AG (SI). I own several other integrated oils with my largest in CVX. I continue to hold CVX as they pay a higher dividend and have a lower PE than OXY. Any rally in oil, I plan to peel off some shares of the CVX. I like Semens (SI)with their low PE at 9, diversified business units and exposure to infrastructure business in China. wikinvest.com From the Wikiinvest Web Site:"...Business lines of Siemens include Information and Communications, Automation and Control, Power, Transportation, Medical, and Lighting. Siemens is active in many business areas, and benefits from globalization and booming economies in Asia, particularly China, and eastern Europe, where Siemens provides infrastructures in communication, IT, transportation, and power, including wind turbines. Siemens is also experiencing an improvement in its productivity, reflected by its decision to separate its under-performing telecoms handset business into a joint venture with Nokia. Along with General Electric Company (GE), Siemens dominates the world market in production of the large turbines, which utilities use to power cities and large factories. Emerging Markets such as China, Russia, and India are experiencing strong growth in power consumption and the lack of competition for product sales in these markets will help to ensure growing sales for years to come...." This is BOTH an infrastructure play in China and an Obama stimulus play for 2010-2011. The stock has had a pretty good run but no more than many of the rest of the market. Company pays a small dividend which yields 1.8%. This portfolio move allows me to have a bit larger exposure to infrastructure and stimulus growth contained in my recent buys. finance.yahoo.com EKS