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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (53363)8/9/2009 7:05:09 PM
From: TobagoJack  Respond to of 217764
 
forex trade is like a tax on the real economy, except we do not know the tax rate

in the mean time, an e-mail discussion

player 1 Here is a quandary though: if the us saves nothing, how do they end up with the largest savings industry in the world? Where do fidelity, capital, putnam etc... Get their money from? How about 75pc of the world's hedge funds?...

player 2 time will tell if that remains so. ironic. the best infrastructure in the worst place. the next chapter hasn't been written yet, has it?

player 3 From the very richest.

The problem Louis is that about 25% of Americans have about 95% of the savings.

The bottom 75% are in very lousy shape....

As of 2004
Percentile:
90-100 worth $3,114,200
25th Percentile worth -$1,400
25th-50th percentile worth $47,100
50th-75th percentile worth $185,400

player 4 And if you were an elected politician, where would you go (with these results), to find the means to your promises? Just change the rules of the game, and poof, like genies.

player 5 From foreign central banks…

playrer 7 endow me with stolen land, bless me as last man standing by two world wars, favor me with a fiat money inflation printing machines specializing in one of a kind global reserve currency, and i too will show you the largest ever financial savings recycling and thieving industry ;0/

player 8 The USA hasn't had to save because the rest of the world has done it's saving for them. I suspect we're in the early innings of a tectonic plate shift in international finance,the ramifications of which are currently poorly understood. I expect significant wealth destruction in industries that benefitted from the prior paradigm, including the US finance and banking sector (already occurring). The USD is doomed to ultimately lose it's reserve currency status which will remove the final prop to the purchasing power of Americans. The world has entered an Ice Age which will likely last at least another decade,and in it's aftermath will look very different indeed.

player 9 Care to take a stab at what you see as the aftermath?

player 8 I usually can't see clearly 10 days into the future,so 10 years is an extraordinary task.

The forces at work do seem unusually powerful though. My best guesstimate is that US hegemony peaked in the world around the end of Clinton's 2nd term,coinciding neatly with the last wave of true tech innovation terminating about year 2000.

I believe the US has been in secular decline since that point,and the currency has accurately reflected the deteriorating fundamentals.

Countries,like people, go through various life phases and the decline in US prospects now looks so clearly systemic that only the ignorant or parochial would bother to argue the point.

The next 10 years look very bad for the world at large IMHO. Emerging markets need to adjust quickly from an IMF-backed export model to a balanced one where domestic demand plays an equal role. This can be done, but it will face serious resistance from existing entrenched interests and will take 5-7 years to complete the transition in my view. The great global trade machine is threatened not only by the dire mathematics of this inexorable rebalancing but by an inevitable increase in protectionism. Were governments willing to entirely change course tomorrow and adopt policies to hasten into being this new world paradigm, I'd say we could get back to a platform of sustainable growth within 6-7 years.

Since governments everywhere are still either ignorant, in denial, or captive to status quo interests that will be harmed by these changes (imagine that) I'll optimistically say we'll get there in about 10 years.

If I were a pessimist I'd say Japan has gone global now (and in many senses this is the case) and the global secular decline should continue for about 20 years,which is precisely what has occurred with the balance sheet recession in that country. However, contrary to what my detractors believe I choose to be optimistic.