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To: TimF who wrote (36293)	8/12/2009 3:54:25 AM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

Where's the inflation?

To: TimF who wrote (36293)	8/12/2009 3:58:36 AM
From: DuckTapeSunroof	Respond to of 71588

When did this recession start and when will it end? The Commerce Department reported US Q2 GDP on July 31 at -1.0% (qtr-qtr annualized), which was a smaller decline than expectations of -1.5%. Importantly, the composition of the report led many forecasters to raise their projections for GDP in the second half of 2009 since inventories were slashed in the first half of the year, setting the stage for a recovery in the second half of the year. The consensus among forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg News is that US GDP will turn positive to +1.0% in Q3 and +1.9% in Q4. Those are still below-par GDP rates but anything in positive territory after one-1/2 years of recession would be a welcome relief. Forecasters are still expecting the recovery to be a jobless recovery in its early stages and they expect the unemployment rate to continue to climb into 2010. The Commerce Department, along with the Q2 GDP report, released a comprehensive set of revisions for the GDP data going all the way back to the beginning of the data history in 1947. The Commerce Department releases those extensive revisions only once every five years. A big piece of news in the revision was that the size of the 1973-75 recession was reduced to a peak-to-trough decline of -3.2% from -4.7%. That meant that the 2007-09 recession of -3.9% on a GDP peak-to-trough basis jumped into first place as the largest recession since the GDP data history began in 1947. The 2007-09 recession felt like a particularly nasty recession and that has now been confirmed by the GDP data. Moreover, US GDP during the 2007-09 recession fell for four consecutive quarters, which was a record for GDP history since 1947. The market consensus is that the U.S. recession ended during Q2 and that GDP will now turn positive. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of recession dating, will not decide on the end-date for the recession until probably next year. The NBER already has set the start date for the current recession in December 2007, which now looks like a particularly good decision since Q1-2008 GDP was revised to –0.7% from +0.9%. Futures Magazine MarketPulse Editors August 10, 2009