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Strategies & Market Trends : How To Write Covered Calls - An Ongoing Real Case Study! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Robert Stewart who wrote (5712)10/29/1997 4:54:00 PM
From: Herm  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 14162
 
No Robert,

I don't think VVUS will break $30 this week. That was a point of great resistance the last time around. The price increase today was a welcome sight indeed. VVUS managed some very large price swings today. There was some heavy dumping in the PM that lowered the price a great deal off the highs! The RSI indicator did a good job of pin pointing the bottom. And, an open Candlestick finally appeared yesterday! I will wait for the RSI to reach the middle before I write the next round of CCs.

Here is some inportant info from another forum:

To: +Franco Battista (1397 )
From: +Colby Wednesday, Oct 22 1997 6:16PM EST
Reply #1398 of 1671

As, promised, Here is the results of my conversation with Nina Ferarri,
the IR women at VVUS.
1. They are test running the facility, which ran as expected.. The facility will increase capacity fivefold, although, they only plan on doubling capacity by the end of the 1st quarter and adjusting from there to meet demand.
A. The MCA, which is the European equivolent to the FDA, is coming in NOV. to inspect the new plant. Upon approval, they may begin shipping to Europe. They do not need FDA approval for shipping oversees. They don't know when the FDA will inspect. The FDA does not schedule times like the MCA.

2. They are planning on advertising in the 1st half of 98. We are looking at roughly a $5 MM dollar campaign (that is the estimate of the Ad agency). They don't want to start now, because they cannot meet demand as it is.

3. Milestone payments work as following: They still have 15MM coming in from Astra and Jansen. Astra pays 2 MM for approval in each of the 5 major eurocountries. UK, France, Germany, Italy, and I think Spain, but I am not sure. They get 2 MM from Jansen for China,
and I am not sure where the other 3 come from. I guess the other little asian countries.

4. They have $97 MM in cash on the balance sheet and 0 debt.

5. There has been no return of products as of yet. The product does have a shelf life of about 18 months, so we wouldn't expect to see any return of another 9 months. They have for dosages used by the ED population as follows (I am pretty sure I got these numbers right, if, not I switched the dosage with the percentage, sorry): 20%-125mg,
30%-250mg, 30%-500mg, 40%-1000mg. 7 out of 10 perscriptions are paid by 3rd parties, i.e. insurances, and that # is going up.

6. In the clinical trial, 1% suffered from hypotension. This was seen in patients who could get blood flow to the penis, but could not keep it there. They found in 6 of 8 patients who had this problem, using Actis, which is the only fully adustable FDA approved CockRing (sorry, I couldn't think of another word for it, which is their product) in conjuction with MUSE helped alleviate the situation.

7. The Founder and CEO have a constant selling program in place.
This is because they have so much, they need to diversify their portfolio. Nina told me from year to year, their positions do not decrease because they acquire so much through options and compinsation.

I think this just about covers our conversation. I realize a lot of this info was already known, but it is nice to hear from time to time. It made me feel better about buying more today.

Standing erect,
Colby