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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: edgedirect who wrote (6280)	10/29/1997 7:15:00 PM
From: Ashikin Wan-Noor	Respond to of 9285

Edge, What's the url for John G's high flier short thread. I checked out last few entries on the SMOD thread...the tone is downright bullish! Umm... Roger's rule of "bullish exuberance" (redundant, I know) may apply here... Thanks.

To: edgedirect who wrote (6280)	10/29/1997 11:14:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 9285

Edgedirect, regarding SMOD. Thanks for the info. I agree from a chart standpoint this would does look like a nice 20% pop down to 40 again, but from a fundamental standpoint it looks like their growth rate is forecast at 30% and they're current trading with a trailing PE of 30 and PS ratio of 1.8. That's not bad. Do you know anything about the cause for the breakdown from 90? I still considering shorting, but like you I agree there are many good candidates. I'm still buying even today because you never know where bottom is, but I'm weaning myself from techs. I going to keep my longs and just take profits from my shorts with each dip...hopefully. I hope we stay in a trading range for a while. I'm waiting to short amzn when it forms a double top like yahoo or a head and shoulders formation. Jim

To: edgedirect who wrote (6280)	11/1/1997 11:39:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

Edge, I will rush to study SMOD as a possible short. Can you give me any other good ideas. I will get back to you when I finish my assessment of SMOD. Just one thougth. You seem to short on technical analysis basis. Do you consider the fundamentals? Pancho

To: edgedirect who wrote (6280)	11/1/1997 11:53:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

Edge, I would be careful with SMOD. It is a Zacks strong buy. They are in an industry that is growing at a 30% pace (networking) the have done extemely well and have a positive free cash flow. Selling at 25x 97 earnings and 20x estimated 98. I think given the current volatility you will probably be capable of covering at a profit, but with such strong fundamentals I would not get too greedy. Looks like you will do just fine if you can cover at 45. I only short when a see some fundamental weakness in the stock that is not reflected in the price. I guess we differ in this. Pancho next you will see some impresive quarterly numbers for smod: look at the aminzingly strong trend in sales and earnings: edge the more I think about the more I worry.... cover soon. I think this is is actually a buy! thanks for the tip! I will buy if it retests the lows 7/31/97 4/30/97 1/31/97 10/31/96 7/31/96 4/30/96 1/31/96 10/31/95 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (1) Net Sales 201.92 143.65 131.61 106.29 101.05 103.76 90.32 80.53 (2) Pretax Income 18.87 14.35 13.20 N/A 10.45 9.39 N/A N/A (3) Net Income 12.45 9.47 8.71 7.11 6.62 5.92 5.45 4.90 (3) Total Assets 211.73 199.49 180.60 172.18 140.06 N/A N/A 91.98 (4) Shareholders Equity 122.08 106.18 96.32 86.62 77.92 N/A N/A 26.23 Pretax Margin % (2/1) 9.34 9.99 10.03 N/A 10.34 9.05 N/A N/A x Tax Retent % (3/2) 66.00 66.00 65.96 N/A 63.35 63.00 N/A N/A = Profit Margin % (3/1) 6.17 6.59 6.62 6.69 6.55 5.70 6.03 6.09 x Assets Utilization (1/4) 0.95 0.72 0.73 0.62 0.72 N/A N/A 0.88