These guys haven't read Barron's(pronounced Bear 'uns). The chip industry can't grow next year. You know, the Asia problem..................
newsalert. ( The link's too long)...........
Global Chip Market to Grow Nearly 17% in 1998; Total Sales Should Exceed $232 Billion in 2000
PR Newswire - October 29, 1997 16:45
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SAN JOSE, Oct. 29 /PRNewswire/ -- The gradual growth of the global chip
market in 1997 should give way to robust growth in 1998 as semiconductor
sales increase 16.8 percent to $162.6 billion. Double-digit growth will
continue in 1999 and 2000, with sales surpassing the $232 billion mark by the
beginning of the new century, the Semiconductor Industry Association announced
today.
"This year can be characterized by one word -- recovery -- and 1998 should
be even better for the semiconductor industry," said SIA President George
Scalise. "We are confident, based upon the world's fascination with
electronic products, that our industry's historical, double-digit growth rates
will resurface in 1998, 1999 and the year 2000."
The forecast is predicated on the expectation that the DRAM chip market
will see a significant rebound in 1998 from the price slump that surfaced in
1996. New growth in semiconductor markets will also be driven by the
continued expansion of Internet usage and the development of new applications
for personal computers and other consumer electronic devices, the SIA said.
The forecast was produced by the top market researchers at
70 semiconductor companies who are members of the World Semiconductor Trade
Statistics organization. It was formally presented at the SIA's 21st Annual
Forecast and Award Dinner in San Jose.
This year, the SIA forecast dinner celebrated the 50th anniversary of the
invention of the transistor at Bell Labs. "This amazing invention -- possibly
the most significant invention in the history of modern technology -- has
improved virtually every aspect of people's lives -- at home, at work and at
play," said Curtis J. Crawford, the forecast speaker and president of Lucent
Microelectronics.
"In fact, every day new miracles are being carried out by an estimated
200 quadrillion transistors, or about 40 million for every man, woman and
child. The transistor set the foundation for one of the world's most dynamic
industries," Crawford said.
By the end of 1997, global chip sales should hit $139.1 billion, a
5.5 percent increase over the $131.9 billion sales recorded in 1996. The
1997 growth rate would be much higher -- 10.4 percent -- if the value of the
U.S. dollar had not appreciated so much against Japanese and European
currencies. This is the first year in memory when currency fluctuations have
had a demonstrable impact on dollar-based growth rates, WSTS officials said.
In 1998, global sales should increase $23.4 billion over 1997. In 1999,
according to the forecast, sales will jump again, by 19 percent, to
$193.5 billion. And in the year 2000, sales will grow another 20 percent to
reach $232.3 billion. In 1990, the world market was $50.5 billion.
Here are other highlights of the 1997-2000 forecast:
* In 1997, microprocessor sales not only grew 27.6 percent, but became the
best selling product, surpassing DRAMs in total sales. DRAMs are likely to
regain the lead as the largest semiconductor product category in 2000.
Sales for microprocessors, the central processing units for computers,
increased from $18.5 billion in 1996 to $23.6 billion in 1997. In 1998, the
WSTS forecasts a 20.4 percent increase as sales reach $28.4 billion, followed
by a 19.6 percent hike in 1999 as sales hit $34.0 billion. Microprocessor
sales are likely to grow 19.3 percent in 2000 with sales hitting
$40.6 billion.
The U.S. continues to be the hottest sales market for microprocessors,
representing 44.3 percent of all MPU sales in 1997, and 42.9 percent in
2000. Europe is the second largest market with 25 percent of all MPU
sales in 1997.
* The DRAM market exploded in the mid-90s, reaching an all-time high of
$40.8 billion in 1995 --- a year of 74.4 percent growth. Pricing for DRAMs
collapsed in 1996 as sales slid to $25.1 billion, a 38.5 percent decline from
1995. The inventory/over supply problems that triggered the 1996 slump
carried over into 1997, and sales fell another 16.9 percent to $20.8 billion.
However, the WSTS forecast envisions a return to growth for DRAM sales
throughout the rest of the decade. Sales are expected to increase 20 percent
in 1998 to $25.0 billion, 28.5 percent in 1999 to $32.2 billion, and
29.7 percent in 2000 to $41.7 billion.
* In another first, the Asia-Pacific market eclipsed Europe in total
sales. The Asia-Pacific region should overtake Japan, the No. 2 market, in
1999.
Asia-Pacific continues to be the fastest growing semiconductor market.
Sales increased 10.2 percent this year to $30.3 billion, up from $27.5 billion
in 1996. Growth in excess of 20 percent per year is forecast for 1998 through
2000, when total sales for the region should hit $56.5 billion. Today,
Asia-Pacific represents 21.8 percent of all chip sales. In 2000, it will
represent 24.3 percent.
* Chip sales in the Americas market set the tone for the 1997 recovery as
sales reached $46.8 billion, a 9.7 percent improvement from 1996. In 1998,
the region's sales should hit $54.9 billion, a 17.2 percent hike, and then
increase 19.2 percent and 19.8 percent, respectively, in 1999 and 2000. Sales
in the year 2000 should reach a commanding $78.4 billion.
The Americas market, which is dominated by U.S. sales, is the world's
largest market. It represents slightly more than one-third of all global
sales.
* Japan, hit hard by fluctuations in the value of the Yen, saw a sales
decline of 1.9 percent in 1997 as total sales fell to $33.5 billion. A
dramatic turnaround is expected for 1998, when sales should jump 12.2 percent
to $37.6 billion. Sales in Japan will increase 14.3 percent in 1999 and 15.9
percent in 2000, when overall sales reach $49.8 billion. That figure will
represent 21.5 percent of the world market in 2000. In 1997, Japan is
24.1 percent.
* Europe, representing 20.4 percent of the global market, witnessed a
sales increase of 3.2 percent in 1997 as sales hit $28.4 billion.
During the next three years, European sales should increase 17 percent,
19.2 percent and 19.9 percent. In 2000, sales in Europe will reach a new high
of $47.5 billion.
Here are the projections for the major product categories.
* The MOS Memory market (which includes DRAMs) dropped 32.6 percent in
1996, and continued to fall 15.5 percent this year. Sharp sales increases are
on the near horizon, however, because sales should increase 16.9 percent in
1998 to $35.5 billion, up from $30.4 billion in 1997. Sales in 1999 and 2000
should increase by a dramatic 23.4 percent and 25 percent, respectively.
Sales in 2000 should exceed $54.8 billion, according to the WSTS.
* The MOS Micro market, which includes microprocessors and digital signal
processors, should average 20 percent growth throughout the decade. This
market will grow 21.1 percent in 1997 as sales hit $48.2 billion. During the
next three years, sales will jump to $57.8 billion, $69.5 billion and
$83.5 billion. In 1995, the MOS Micro market had sales of $33.3 billion.
* MOS Logic sales grew 7.2 percent in 1997 to $21.5 billion. Next year,
sales will leap 15.2 percent to $24.8 billion. Growth of 18.2 percent and
19.8 percent should follow in 1999 and 2000. Sales in 2000 should be
$35.1 billion.
* Sales of Analog products played a key role in the 1997 recovery of the
chip market. Sales this year increased 14.9 percent to $19.5 billion, up from
$17.0 billion in 1996. Analog sales should continue to expand by
18.2 percent in 1998, 17.8 percent in 1999 and 19.1 percent in the year 2000.
Analog sales will reach $32.4 billion in 2000 -- nearly double the Analog
sales of 1995.
Global Consumption in Major Markets
Worldwide Sales
Market Sector 1997 2000
America's market 33.6% 33.7%
Japan market 24.1 21.5
Asia Pacific market* 21.8 24.3
European market 20.4 20.5
* Includes Singapore, Korea, China, Taiwan
Growth of Global Sales 1980-2000
Year Global Sales Annual Growth Rate
1980 $13.1 billion 27.2 %
1985 22.1 16.8
1990 50.5 1.6
1995 144.4 41.7
1997 139.1 5.5
1998 162.6 16.8
1999 193.5 19.0
2000 232.3 20.0
Source: WSTS 1997
More information about market sectors and product lines may be found on
the SIA's web site: www.semichips.org. Copies of the complete forecast may
also be purchased from the SIA by calling 408-436-6600.
SOURCE Semiconductor Industry Association
/CONTACT: Jeff Weir of SIA, 408-436-6600/
/Web site: semichips.org |
