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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: alanrs who wrote (101053)	8/20/2009 9:52:14 AM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Nope, not all of it. I have read more objective analysis of the credit bubble. In particular, Doug Noland's missives on Prubear are excellent, although his language is something to get used to. In addition, Mish claims excellent knowledge, is quite arrogant and ridicules points of view that, well, prove to be right over time. Na-na-na was all his at the top of the Treasury bond bubble, whereas he has been wrong for a decade prior to the start of this recession. The ability not to listen, nor understand points of views will, well, lead to losses in the markets for his followers, and did already prior to the recession. The bond is back to where it was in the last 5 years or so. Me? I'm trading, not advising. So far profitably, and last year was spectacular. Being humble is the rule to profitability for traders. Got an ego? You'll quickly get run over. The fight between deflationary effect of credit collapse and reflationary effect of printing is a constant battle in these markets. I am not willing to give one or another an upper hand, but I am pretty sure if the economy recovers, we'll see side effects from reflation. -ggg- In particular, instead of pointing at collapse of commodity prices and dancing to deflation tune, did he figure out these represent buying opportunities of the century because they trade well below cost of production, so supply will come down? Oil doubled from last Winter. I bought gold stocks into the drop and in October and am very, very happy about that.

To: alanrs who wrote (101053)	8/20/2009 12:14:51 PM
From: Real Man	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

faulty/incomplete analysis, and extreme arrogance, never admitting being wrong. I will admit being wrong myself last Fall - I looked at the monetary base and thought the Fed is monetizing through the roof last Fall, like many others, and thinking this was very inflationary. Nope. As Mish correctly explained, reserves piled up there, which was deflationary. However, it was Wiki article on financial crisis that helped me understand why that happened - the Fed made it happen! The deflation claim was that reserves piled up because banks were scared and refused to lend. Not at all! It was simply wrong. They can pile up in T-bills for that, and they did. The Fed made them reserves go into the Fed and produce a large DRAIN, for whatever reasons (shoring up the buck???) Needless to say, this info is all like peanuts for the pros, they know it.