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Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: vixson who wrote (42578)	8/20/2009 10:19:13 AM
From: da_cheif™	Respond to of 207055

wow more...bears then bulls again....watch the sky....-g-

To: vixson who wrote (42578)	8/20/2009 10:21:29 AM
From: da_cheif™	Respond to of 207055

wow more bears than bulls again........watch the sky

To: vixson who wrote (42578)	8/20/2009 11:10:23 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 207055

RE AAII: AAII members are: (as of 8/19/2009) Bullish: 34.07% Neutral: 25.93% Bearish: 40.00% Thanks for posting this every week! I first posted my chart for the 52-wk moving average (WMA) of AAII showing peak pessimism reached the same level of peak exuberance in my March 19, 2009 newsletter, just 10 days after the market bottomed. For nonsubscribers, this is some of what I wrote: "The AAII chart above shows a dashed green line for a 9.9% annual return since Jan 1988. This line was the “support level” for the DJIA until early 2008, about 20 years. I show two dotted black lines with arrows marking distance from this green line as “peak exuberance” and “peak pessimism.” I point that out to show that, when measured as distance from a long-term return of about 10%, the low set about a week ago was about as pessimistic at the low before the rally as it was overly optimistic at the top in 2000. If the market was a rubber band, this would be the perfect “snap-back” level to return to trend of about 10% a year. I also show “Head and Shoulder Top” that I posted on this chart over a year ago as a personal reminder to remain cautious. It clearly was a top and the market exceeded the “minimum target” of about DJIA 9,000. . Finally, back in 1988 you could buy a 30-yr Treasury Bond that paid about 8% a year interest so the DJIA has under performed it by about 2% a year for the last 20 years, a very, very rare occurrence. Regression to the mean plus pessimism greater than peak optimism suggests we are due for a very large rally after investors realize Treasury bills paying a few percent at best will not keep up with inflation." It took the DOW about 3 years to fall from peak exuberance to the green trend line. It could easily take just as long to reach that line again but from a point of peak pessimism. We are still a long way from that line.... We could easily remain in a secular bear market where we do not make a new high for years, but I believe there is significant money to be made as the market recovers to trend from the trillions of dollars on the sidelines returning to the markets. Note that the last three bear markets began (1998, 2000 & 2007) just after new highs for the 52-wk moving average (WMA) of AAII. People as a whole are so bearish now that I’d not be surprised if the markets rally more than many expect. We COULD get a “higher high” for the 52-WMA just before the markets enter another major bear market.