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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DebtBomb who wrote (216501)	8/20/2009 12:51:16 PM
From: Smiling Bob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

That story alone should be crushing this market Anyone who thinks that our economy can avoid depression with staggering numbers like this is kidding themselves. 13 of every 100 families are BROKE, and growing. And all MM wants to talk about is earnings beats, health insurance reform, and a stock market on GS autopilot.

To: DebtBomb who wrote (216501)	8/20/2009 12:53:24 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Some graphs based on the MBA survey report: calculatedriskblog.com I was on the conference call, and Brinkmann thinks delinquencies will peak mid-2010 and foreclosures towards the end of 2010. Also - the problem has really moved to Prime loans. (see graphs in link above).

To: DebtBomb who wrote (216501)	8/20/2009 2:51:02 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Mortgage insurance - a few days old. Some are questioning the unexpected profits in the mortgage insurers. Could it reflect overly optimistic revisions to loss estimates? Mmmmm, could be! Their core business of insurance writing continues downward according to the article, which surprises me. I would have figured that the end of second mortgages to avoid PMI would have outweighed the undertow of declining mortgage volume. thestreet.com Radian Is the Whole Package: Is It Safe? Gavin Magor 08/17/09 - 12:37 PM EDT "Is It Safe?" looks at a company's risk-and-reward potential. Find out if your stocks are safe at 4 a.m. on Tuesdays and Thursdays. PHILADELPHIA (TheStreet) -- Mortgage-guarantee insurer Radian(RDN Quote) surprised investors by posting net income of $232 million in the second quarter. Analysts had expected a loss. The profit was attributed to so-called loss management and unrealized gains on derivatives, the area of speculation that some analysts blame entirely for the fall of American International Group(AIG Quote), once the largest U.S. insurer. Still, Radian's potential risks and gains remain a mystery to investors. The pressure is on for mortgage insurers such as Genworth Financial(GNW Quote), MGIC Investment(MTG Quote), Old Republic International(ORI Quote) and PMI Group(PMI Quote). There has been a decline in mortgage-guarantee insurance for every month from January through June, SNL Financial reported. Delinquencies are rising. The better-than-expected performance by Radian may reflect an overly pessimistic projection for defaults and recoveries, as opposed to outperformance. Claims estimates for the rest of the year improved to $1.1 billion, down from $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion. That led analysts to revise the 2009 loss and increase next year's projected profit. Radian's stock has rocketed, nearly tripling in the past month. Unlike most insurers, Radian was hit well before last fall. Its stock dropped off a cliff in July 2007 from a high of $65. The stock tracked the crash last year, but didn't suffer additional punishment. Interest in the stock continues to be strong. Last week's volume jumped 50%. Coupled with a short interest ratio of 0.84, that could mean the higher price might be sustainable. But a sky-high beta of 1.97 suggests massive volatility. TheStreet.com Ratings has the stock as a "sell" recommendation. Radian is still attractively priced on a price-to-book basis (about 30%). The price-to-earnings ratio is in the gutter (0.7). There are only eight other insurers with higher stock prices over 12 months, year to date, three months and one week. Each has its own strengths. PartnerRe(PRE Quote) and RennaissanceRe Holdings(RNR Quote) have low P/E ratios. Allied World Assurance(AWH Quote) and Endurance Specialty Holdings(ENH Quote) boast attractive price-to-book ratios. But only Radian has the entire package. There's a downside. SNL Financial reports that analysts' consensus price target for the year is $6.10. The stock is now well above $7. But there's no evidence to support that Radian is overpriced. The company continues to give off positive vibes, including its decision to repay $100 million of a borrowing facility due in 2011. -- Reported by Gavin Magor in Jupiter, Fla. `BC