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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TH who wrote (104528)	8/20/2009 5:42:10 PM
From: saveslivesbyday	Respond to of 110194

TH, I suppose the markets will decline when it looks and feels like a true recovery to the majority. Don't ask me to judge when - I'm not in tune with the "bullish vibes", it just looks ridiculous to me that fund managers are being paraded on TV saying that we're going to new highs from here. Now that Roubini and other bears have capitulated, it would be even more surprising to the media folks. The 5% drop in China 2 days ago was the kind of wobbling that often occurs at a transition point. I wouldn't be surprised to see China lead all the world indices down substantially. If all assets deflate simultaneously, it might not have as drastic effects on currencies, so the dollar can drop and people will continue to pile into US treasuries, while the markets are in free fall again.... I can dream, can't I? -g-

To: TH who wrote (104528)	8/20/2009 10:09:51 PM
From: bart13	27 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

An oldie/goodie: beginning of month = rally end of month = rally hard end of quarter = rallying too hard for words California BK = fiscal rejiggering Michigan next in line = never mentioned CRE depression = REIT's explode higher Housing JUNE sales edge higher = housing is rebounding (again) GS front running trades = liquidity preservation Banks own congress and the Fed = bank rally consumer is insolvent = consumer is saving mass layoffs = across the board earnings' improvement earnings are not improving = earnings are beating street's expectations STILL no jobs created= the consumer is temporarilly retrenching deflation = bull rally expiration of unemployment benefits = unemployment is abating OR contracting(either will do just fine) Isn't our economy consumer based? = don't ask, don't tell consumer IS 70% of economy = rebound will be business based low interest rates = good for stocks high interest rates = great for stocks collapsing dollar = buy stocks rising dollar = not gonna happen $10 frozen dinner = sure sign of recovery CIT BK = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY CIT not yet BK = reason to be bullish Bank failure Friday = stabilization oil @ 50 = recovery is close oil at $70 = recovery is incredibly close oil at $90 = starting to recover oil @ $110 = sign of increased consumer spending oil @ $5 = boon for Joe Consumer Gas @ $2 = tax break gas @ $3 = mustard seeds for economic recovery gas @ $4 = depression Gas @ $1 = not in our lifetime employment @ 10 % = better than expected employment @ 11% = as expected employment @ 12% = not unexpected employment @ 13% = could have been expected real unemployment right now @ 17% = never discussed real unemployment @ 22% = market could correct from here stealing from our grandchildren = stimulus stealing from our great grandchildren = "cash for clunkers is a huge success" government buying people cars = economy showing signs of life economy is already dead = S+P 1000, DOW 10k bear market rally = NEW bull market rally no basis for NEW bull market rally = dis-included in pumper's handbook 10% unemployment effects of socialism depressionary states higher taxes = THE NEW NORMAL oppressive government social unrest decending to mediocrity AND IF ALL ELSE FAILS(which probably will): WWIII = TANGIBLE MANUFACTURING GREEN SHOOT